Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and son Xavier arrive in New Delhi, India to attend the G20 Summit.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
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Guests arriving in the Indian capital New Delhi ahead of this weekend’s G20 summit were greeted by spotless streets, heavy security and the face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi staring out at them from posters and billboards all over the city.
Mr. Modi’s government has invested heavily in the G20, spending a reported $135-million, a budget which dwarfs that of previous summits: last year’s meetings in Bali cost Indonesia around $45-million. Preparatory events and celebrations have been held across India, monkeys and stray dogs have been cleared off Delhi’s streets and slums bulldozed or covered by large cloth walls often bearing the slogan of the summit: “One Earth, One Family, One Future.”
“Mr. Modi’s domestic campaign to make this a memorable event is unfolding in full force,” said John Kirton, director of the G20 Research Group at the University of Toronto.
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Delhi has justified this largesse as spreading the benefits of the G20 nationwide and showing the world how far India has come, and certainly world leaders are arriving keen to shore up deals with the rapidly rising power. Critics, however, argue Mr. Modi is taking advantage of the G20 to boost support ahead of elections next year.
What successes come out of this weekend’s meetings are more likely to be domestic than international: G20 members are split on a vast number of issues, and both Xi Jinping of China and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are skipping the summit.
Prof. Kirton, who has covered the G20 for more than a decade, said he did not remember a summit where there were so many disagreements just days before leaders were due to meet. Normally, top-ranking diplomats known as “sherpas” hash out most issues ahead of time, but Prof. Kirton said there was “still a lot they haven’t been able to close” that will now have to be decided (or not) in the closed-door meetings in Delhi.
On Friday, India’s chief sherpa Amitabh Kant said a leader’s declaration was “almost ready,” telling reporters in New Delhi it would “be a voice of the Global South and developing countries.” India will formally propose the African Union as the next G20 member this weekend, Mr. Kant added.
How extensive the leader’s communique may be is unclear, however, particularly whether it will cover the war in Ukraine. At last year’s meetings in Bali, after intense negotiations led in part by India, leaders agreed to a statement that condemned Russia’s invasion in broad terms, but also acknowledged “other views” on the situation. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who was representing Mr. Putin at the meeting, accused Western countries of “politicizing” the process and said matters such as the Ukraine invasion were not in the competency of the G20.
Mr. Lavrov has made clear that in Delhi, he will be less willing to compromise. Speaking at an event in Moscow last week, he said “there will be no general declaration on behalf of all members if our position is not reflected.”
Meanwhile, Western leaders, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and French President Emmanuel Macron, have suggested they will not support any statement that falls short of the Bali declaration in its criticism of Russia.
Beijing, which agreed to last year’s compromise statement while joining Moscow in dissenting on the Ukraine portions, also appears to have hardened its stance. China’s foreign ministry has said it hoped the Delhi meeting will focus on challenges facing the global economy, and the country will be represented in India by Premier Li Qiang, who has responsibility for economic issues, not foreign policy.
Mr. Kant, the Indian sherpa, said the issue of Ukraine “has been discussed at great length” but acknowledged “the challenge of any multilateral discussion is you have to have consensus on every issue.”
While Mr. Putin has avoided most international summits in recent years, Mr. Xi’s absence from Delhi has raised more eyebrows. The Chinese leader has only missed one other G20 meeting since becoming president in 2013, and that was in 2021 when he did not leave the country due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Beijing has not given any reason for Mr. Xi’s absence, a lack of transparency that is typical of top-level Chinese politics.
Long-time China watcher Bill Bishop, who writes the influential Sinocism newsletter, pointed to ongoing territorial disputes between Beijing and New Delhi as the most likely cause. Last year, Indian and Chinese troops clashed in the Himalayas in the first such incident since 2020, when hundreds of troops brawled with clubs and other makeshift weapons in Ladakh.
“There are not going to be any significant breakthroughs in the PRC-India relationship, so he does not need to give Modi the respect of his attendance,” Mr. Bishop said of Mr. Xi. He added the Chinese leader also has a host of domestic issues – including an economic downturn and recent natural disasters – that could require his attention.
Mr. Xi has longstanding ambitions to reinvent the U.S.-dominated international order, so skipping the G20 may also be designed to diminish the importance of the bloc, compared to China-led institutions like the recently expanded BRICS grouping.
The Chinese leader could also simply be responding to the widespread skepticism many observers have about the potential value of this weekend’s summit. Clifford May, president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a non-partisan Washington D.C. think tank, said when it came to the current effectiveness of the G20, “I’m dubious that much of significance can or will be achieved, no matter who is or is not present.”