Supporters of President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and leader of the Union of Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party, Félix Tshisekedi, cheer at a campaign rally at Sainte Therese in the Ndjili district of Kinshasa on Dec. 18. Forty-four million people are registered to vote in the presidential, parliamentary, provincial and municipal elections scheduled for Dec. 20, in the central African nation.JOHN WESSELS/Getty Images
One of Africa’s biggest and most important elections is under threat from regional wars, campaign violence and potential fraud as President Félix Tshisekedi seeks to fend off a strong opposition challenge in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Nearly 44 million people are registered to vote in Wednesday’s election, which will determine who controls a country with some of the world’s largest reserves of critical minerals and carbon-absorbing rain forests. The election results will shape Congo’s response to the wars and insurgencies in its eastern region, which have destabilized much of Central Africa and East Africa for decades.
Five years ago, Mr. Tshisekedi came to power in an election that was tainted by widespread accusations of vote-rigging. Independent vote tabulations – including by the Catholic Church and its 40,000 election observers – concluded that he had lost the vote, and some Western governments questioned the official results. But authorities declared Mr. Tshisekedi the winner, reportedly as a result of a backroom deal with outgoing president Joseph Kabila.
Congo’s earlier elections were similarly marred by allegations of fraud, and opposition candidates have said they are worried that the latest vote could be compromised by violence and government interference. The head of the election commission, Denis Kadima, is widely seen as a close associate of Mr. Tshisekedi. Voter cards and electoral materials have been poorly printed and incompletely distributed, observers say.
Many of the 6.9 million Congolese people displaced by internal wars have been unable to get voting cards, and an estimated 1.7 million voters will be unable to cast ballots because they live in conflict zones, primarily in the east.
These factors “may undermine the election legitimacy, opening the door to post-election protests and violence in an already fragile context,” the Africa-based Institute of Security Studies said in a report on the election last week.
Richard Moncrieff, a regional analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the election is “on a knife edge.” The logistical issues will lead to “strong tensions,” he said in a statement on Monday.
The European Union has cancelled its election observer mission in Congo because of restrictions that the government imposed on it.
The Carter Center, a U.S.-based group, has maintained its observer mission for Wednesday’s vote, but has voiced concern about several issues, including the voter registration process. “Concerns about the voter list have contributed to mistrust among stakeholders around the electoral process,” it said in a report in early December.
Opposition candidates have complained that the government is destroying their campaign materials and even preventing them from getting the aviation fuel that they need to travel across the vast country.
With a population of more than 100 million, Congo is the fourth-most populous country in Africa. It is also one of the poorest, and geographically one of the largest. Bad roads and vast distances are major obstacles to the election process.
One of Mr. Tshisekedi’s main challengers in the election, wealthy businessman Moïse Katumbi, has faced a series of violent attacks on his campaign. A group of assailants threw stones to disrupt one of his rallies last week and then hid in the crowd with the help of agents from the National Intelligence Agency, according to a statement by his campaign. Police fired live ammunition at the crowd, and a bodyguard to the candidate reportedly suffered a serious head injury, the statement said.
“This is the latest in a string of violent attacks on Mr. Katumbi and his supporters,” the statement said, alleging that Congolese security forces had tried to prevent him from leaving his hotel at another campaign stop.
Human Rights Watch, in a report on Saturday, warned that the election could be undermined by violent incidents during the campaign, including “assaults, sexual violence and at least one death.” It said Mr. Tshisekedi’s supporters “have been implicated in threats and attacks against opposition leaders and journalists.” Opposition supporters have also been implicated in violence, it said.
Mr. Katumbi, a former governor of mineral-rich Katanga province, has pledged to boost the capacity of Congo’s security forces to restore peace in eastern Congo, where the Rwandan-backed M23 militia has seized territory and forced an estimated one million people to flee their homes.
The International Crisis Group says Mr. Katumbi has built momentum in the campaign and won support from several other opposition parties. But the opposition remains fragmented, boosting Mr. Tshisekedi’s chances in the vote.
Other opposition candidates include former oil executive Martin Fayulu, who claimed victory in the 2018 election and officially placed second, and Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege, a physician who has won praise for his efforts to treat the victims of sexual assault in the wars in eastern Congo.
The United States said it has brokered a temporary ceasefire in the fighting in eastern Congo during the election period, but sharp tensions remain, with Rwanda widely blamed for stoking the M23 offensive in the region. Last week, Mr. Tshisekedi accused Rwandan President Paul Kagame of behaving “like Adolf Hitler by having expansionist aims.”