China's President Xi Jinping in San Francisco on Nov. 15, 2023.CARLOS BARRIA/Reuters
Chinese President Xi Jinping heads to Europe for the first time in five years next week, as Beijing seeks to repair ties with the continent ahead of the U.S. presidential election later this year.
Tensions with Europe have grown over China’s continuing support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, frustration with Chinese trade practices and a spy scandal in Germany, where three people were recently arrested on espionage charges, including an aide to a European lawmaker.
“The nature of EU-China relations have changed a lot over the past five years,” said Abigaël Vasselier, director of policy and European affairs at the Mercator Institute on China Studies. “The context has completely changed. Xi Jinping is going to arrive in Europe at a time when we have come to see China as a challenge to our security and our prosperity.”
The European Union has threatened to hit China’s electric-vehicle and green-energy industries with tariffs over huge subsidies that the EU says give manufacturers in China an unfair edge. Member states are also considering a tougher approach regarding Beijing’s support for Russia.
Speaking to reporters in Beijing this week, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said Mr. Xi’s trip would “inject stability into the development of China-Europe relations and make new contributions to peace and stability in the world.”
Mathieu Duchatel, senior fellow at the Institut Montaigne, said Mr. Xi’s main goal is to neutralize the EU’s economic security agenda, including its tariff threats, by exploiting internal differences.
“There’s a very strong divide and rule element,” Mr. Duchatel said of China’s strategy towards Europe. “That’s not hidden but in plain sight.”
Mr. Xi is due to visit France, Hungary and Serbia, all countries where he can be expected to get a more sympathetic hearing. French President Emmanuel Macron views himself as the continent’s diplomat in chief and has indicated a desire for Europe to exercise “strategic autonomy” from the U.S. in how it manages relations with China.
“China would like Europe to keep its distance vis-a-vis the U.S. and the trajectory the U.S. is taking,” Ms. Vasselier said.
Once a reliable friend to China, Mr. Macron has backed a tougher EU stand on Chinese subsidies, complaining that Europe does not do enough to protect its own market. The French leader is also expected to push for China to stop exports to Russia of “dual-use” civilian-military technologies propping up its war effort, something analysts have suggested could be a new red line leading to further sanctions against Beijing.
But if there are tense conversations in Paris, Mr. Xi’s time in Budapest and Belgrade will be far easier. Both Hungary and Serbia are close to China and have enjoyed strong investment from Beijing, including financial aid for a delayed rail project linking their capitals. Hungary has in the past blocked EU statements criticizing China on human rights and both nations have, like Beijing, resisted pressure to cut ties with Russia following the war in Ukraine.
Mr. Xi’s visit to Belgrade will coincide with the 20th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy there during the Kosovo War. Beijing has never accepted Western explanations of the incident as an accident, and it remains a fraught topic in China.
“This is meant to send a signal that China opposes any intention of NATO expansion,” Ms. Vasselier said.
She said Beijing wanted a stable relationship with Europe, particularly as the U.S. heads into an unpredictable presidential election with both candidates taking a strongly hawkish stance on China. She predicted, however, this will not stop the downward slide in relations, as Beijing has so far not responded well to European concerns on market distortion and Russia.
With a report from Reuters