A video grab from footage broadcast by the U.K.'s Parliamentary Recording Unit shows British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at the House of Commons in London on April 19, 2022.-/AFP/Getty Images
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has issued a renewed round of apologies for breaking COVID-19 lockdown legislation in a bid to fend off calls to resign, but the scandal is far from over and Mr. Johnson’s political future remains insecure.
In a statement to the House of Commons on Tuesday, Mr. Johnson repeatedly said he was sorry for breaching lockdown rules when he attended a gathering in Downing Street in June, 2020, to celebrate his birthday. At the time, social gatherings were prohibited because of the pandemic.
Mr. Johnson, his wife Carrie Johnson and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak, who also attended the party, were among several people fined £50 ($82) last week by London’s Metropolitan Police for violating lockdown regulations. The police investigation continues and Mr. Johnson could yet face further fines for two more parties he allegedly attended in 2020.
“I apologize profusely,” Mr. Johnson told members of Parliament. “As soon as I received the notice, I acknowledged the hurt and the anger, and I said that people had a right to expect better of their Prime Minister, and I repeat that again in the House now.”
Mr. Johnson insisted he did not believe the event was in breach of the law. “It did not occur to me, then or subsequently, that a gathering in the cabinet room just before a vital meeting on COVID strategy could amount to a breach of the rules,” he said. “I repeat, that was my mistake and I apologize for it unreservedly.”
Mr. Johnson has managed so far to dissuade backbench Conservative MPs from moving to oust him as leader. That’s largely because of the war in Ukraine and Britain’s role in providing weapons and other support to the Ukrainian army, which has made most Tories reluctant to dump the Prime Minister.
On Tuesday, Mr. Johnson said Parliament needed to move on from the party scandal and concentrate on other issues, including the war, which was launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin in February. “I feel an even greater sense of obligation to deliver on the priorities of the British people, and to respond in the best traditions of our country to Putin’s barbaric onslaught against Ukraine,” he said.
The Prime Minister can be removed as leader if at least 53 Tory MPs submit letters of no confidence in his leadership. That would trigger a vote among all Conservative MPs, and if more than 50 per cent did not support Mr. Johnson, he would have to resign and a leadership race would start.
While some Tories have reportedly submitted letters calling for a confidence vote, the threshold has not been met, and on Tuesday most Conservative MPs rallied around Mr. Johnson. The Prime Minister “could not have made a more humble apology,” said veteran Tory Steve Baker.
However, one Tory – Mark Harper – broke ranks and said Mr. Johnson was “no longer worthy of the great office he holds.”
All members of Parliament will vote Thursday on a motion to refer Mr. Johnson’s actions to a parliamentary committee, which could recommend a sanction. However, most Tory MPs are expected to vote against the motion, virtually ensuring that it will be defeated given the large Conservative majority in the Commons.
Mr. Johnson could still face a challenge from within Tory ranks. The Conservatives have fallen behind the Labour Party in most opinion polls and the results from next month’s local elections will be an important factor in determining Mr. Johnson’s future. Many of those elections will take place in northern England where the Conservatives made huge breakthroughs in the 2019 national vote, which delivered Mr. Johnson a massive victory.
A poor showing in the regional balloting could prompt Tory MPs to reconsider their support for Mr. Johnson. Theresa May was forced out as party leader and Prime Minister in 2019 after the party faired badly in local contests.
“The mood of Conservative backbenchers, who ultimately decide Johnson’s fate, seems to have shifted for now in a supportive direction,” said Robert Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “It could of course shift again, and a shellacking in local elections could be a trigger for that, particularly if accompanied by continued bad polling.”
However, Dr. Ford and others noted that there are no obvious contenders to replace Mr. Johnson. His main rival, Mr. Sunak, has been damaged politically by recent revelations that he held U.S. residency after he became Chancellor. He and his wife, Akshata Murty, have also faced questions about their financial affairs.
Ms. Murty, an Indian citizen, doesn’t pay British income tax under a legal arrangement that allows her to pay tax in India instead. She owns a stake in her father’s technology company, called Infosys, which has put her net worth at around £500-million. Last week, Ms. Murty said she would drop the arrangement and begin paying taxes in Britain. “I do this because I want to, not because the rules require me to,” she said.
“Boris Johnson appears to have survived the storm while some of his main challengers, notably his Chancellor Rishi Sunak, are today much weaker than they were a month ago,” said Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent.
“Nonetheless, all eyes will now be fixed on the outcome of local elections in May which, crucially, will be held across the northern Red Wall, which first powered Boris Johnson into No. 10 Downing Street more than two years ago.”