Members of the New York Young Republicans and the Long Island Loud Majority hold a rally for former U.S. president Donald Trump, outside the offices of Alvin L. Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, in Lower Manhattan, New York City on March 20, 2023.TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images
Stetson Sullivan’s mom likes to tell the story of his childhood obsession with American leadership. By kindergarten age, he could recite the name of each U.S. president in chronological order. “And I could tell you at least one fact about them,” said Mr. Sullivan, now 20.
So it was little surprise when he became politically active. At 17, he began volunteering for his first campaign, initially helping with e-mails and then moving on to bigger responsibilities related to social media and events.
But Mr. Sullivan has no interest in the left-wing causes that have traditionally drawn the political loyalties of young people. Instead, he devoted his energies advocating for Kari Lake, the former Arizona news anchor who ran a failed campaign for governor. Ms. Lake fashions her policies and her fiery style after Donald Trump.
Mr. Sullivan says the hardship of modern life attracted him to conservative politics. Older Americans could, when they were younger, build homes and livelihoods on entry-level jobs.
“My generation doesn’t understand how that’s possible, because of how much more expensive everything is nowadays,” he said.
In 2020, Joe Biden beat Mr. Trump by roughly 20 points among young voters. It was taken as an article of faith that young Americans, who have tended to feel more strongly about the need to reject racism, fight climate change, maintain access to abortion and preserve minority rights, vote Democratic.
In that year’s election, millennials and Gen Z voters – a group that includes those up to 40 years in age – voted for Mr. Biden at a higher rate than any other demographic.
Four years later, with Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump once again in a close race for the presidency, there are signs that change is coming.
Recent surveys in six key swing states by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer showed Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden effectively tied among younger and Hispanic voters.
The University of Chicago made a similar finding in a poll of younger voters who are Black, Latino and Asian American. It reported a virtual tie between support for Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump – although a slightly greater number of those polled said they would prefer a third-party candidate or “someone else.”
“The minute a Republican figures out how to unlock young people and ethnic minorities, Democrats are in trouble. And that’s where Trump is,” said Stan Barnes, an Arizona lobbyist and consultant.
Earlier in the spring, the Harvard Youth Poll showed far greater levels of enthusiasm for Mr. Trump among younger people compared with Mr. Biden, and a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll showed 62 per cent of that group held unfavourable views of Mr. Biden, while Mr. Trump enjoyed a net-positive rating. (The Harvard poll showed greater strength for Mr. Biden, though his eight-point lead among adults 18 to 29 was considerably narrower than it was four years ago.)
The large numbers of students who have staged campus protests against White House support for Israel have underscored further difficulties for Mr. Biden among young voters.
In some key swing states, meanwhile, Mr. Trump is resurgent.
In Arizona, where Mr. Biden narrowly won in 2020, a Fox News poll found that Mr. Trump has risen to a 21-point lead among voters 30 and under. Mr. Biden has edged higher among retirees, who tend to vote at higher rates. But there are signs that U.S. voters under 30 are becoming more politically active: turnout in that group rose eight points in the 2020 election, a greater increase than in any other demographic.
Mr. Trump has sought to seize upon this turn of political fortune by catering to younger workers. He promised this past weekend to remove taxes on tips – a change from four years ago, when he famously addressed a Students for Trump group and talked about retirement savings and school choice.
The former president’s standing with youth reflects broader political shifts in a country gripped by pessimism over its economic prospects and a deepening loss of faith in its social and political institutions.
On top of that, young working Americans bore the brunt of COVID-19. They experienced higher rates of pandemic job and income loss than other demographics.
It’s enough for some to see Mr. Trump, the moneyed entertainer and property developer, as a more likely source of solutions to seemingly intractable problems, even when history suggests otherwise.
“Trump running and becoming president – it’s a huge thing for us and our generation,” said Judah Bredinger, 19, who plans to cast his presidential vote this year, the first of his life, for the Republican candidate.
“I’m getting paid $14.30 at my job right now. And that’s not enough for what I have to cover – bills, insurance costs, everything,” he said.
In Arizona, like elsewhere, Democrats have been the strongest advocates for increasing the minimum wage. Republicans there have sought to block such pay hikes, including in court.
But Mr. Trump offers something Republicans have not traditionally provided: a home for voters with a taste for electoral rebellion.
“He’s got, like, a badass component. He doesn’t care,” said Carson Tinter, 17. “He’s legit, he’s real. He’s genuine. I don’t think, honestly, any other politicians are, really.”
Jean Twenge, a psychologist at San Diego State University, said something deeper lies beneath the rising support for Mr. Trump. She has tracked rates of pessimism among younger people, and found that it has grown over the past decade, coinciding with the rise of social media and increases in time spent in social isolation.
“Everything is just so negative, and I think that’s true of a lot of people now, of all generations. But it really started with Gen Z,” said Prof. Twenge, who is the author of Generations: The Real Differences between Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomers and Silents – and What They Mean for America’s Future.
Some have tilted toward nihilism, even when things have gone well: Although young people were hit hard by the pandemic, many have come out of it with robust income growth. And until a few years ago, housing in the U.S. was considered broadly affordable.
That has done little to shake the gloomy outlook for a cohort of young people whose expectations for future professional success and satisfaction are much lower than those of previous generations.
“Pessimism is not good for the incumbent,” Prof. Twenge said.