Beijing stages war games around Taiwan as ‘stern warning’ against independence

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China on Monday staged a long-expected second round of “punishment” military exercises around Taiwan, as Beijing ramps up pressure against the island’s democratically-elected government under President Lai Ching-te.

This week’s war games come less than a week after Mr. Lai, who won a historic third term for his independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party in January, gave a speech vowing to “resist annexation or encroachment upon our sovereignty.”

“On this land, democracy and freedom are growing and thriving,” Mr. Lai said. “The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan. The 23 million people of Taiwan, now more than ever, must reach out our branches to embrace the future.”

In a statement criticizing China’s “unwarranted” military action, Washington described Mr. Lai’s address as “routine,” and indeed many commentators had been surprised at his relatively restrained tone in the speech, marking the national day of the Republic of China, as Taiwan is officially known.

But if Mr. Lai’s words were routine, so, at this point, was the response. In recent years, China has often used large-scale war games to signal its displeasure over developments in Taiwan, where all but the tiniest minority reject being absorbed by their autocratic neighbour. Monday’s exercises – codenamed Joint Sword 2024-B – were clearly intended to be seen as a follow up to drills in May around Mr. Lai’s inauguration, described by Beijing at the time as a “strong punishment” for those advocating Taiwan’s independence.

From May, 2024: Taiwan defiant as China stages ‘punishment’ military drills around island

According to graphics published by the People’s Liberation Army, the latest exercises took place all around Taiwan and in the strait separating the island from China. They involved naval, air and rocket forces, including the Liaoning aircraft carrier, currently deployed east of Taiwan in the Pacific. No end date was given for the drill.

PLA spokesman Li Xi said the military activity should serve “as a stern warning” to those advocating Taiwan independence, and was a “legitimate and necessary operation for safeguarding national sovereignty and national unity.” A newspaper associated with the PLA warned in an editorial Monday that “those who play with fire get burned!”

In a major move, China’s coast guard circled Taiwan and staged “law enforcement” patrols close to Taiwan’s offshore islands of Matsu and Dongyin, entering the “restricted waters” of Matsu islands for the first time to “completely tear up” boundaries set by Taiwan authorities, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

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China has often used coast guard vessels to enforce its territorial claims in the South China Sea, where it has illegally annexed and built up disputed shoals and reefs. In recent months, coast guard vessels have engaged in stand offs with Philippine naval and fishing ships around several islets claimed by both sides.

Speaking to the Global Times, a Chinese state-run newspaper, Zhang Chi, a professor at the PLA National Defence University, said the “scope of deterrence” of Monday’s drills was expanded, “especially with China Coast Guard vessels conducting patrol and control operations around the island, achieving successive new breakthroughs.”

Taiwan’s own coast guard said it had expelled four ships from “restricted waters” around Matsu and said it was launching a task force to respond to the “abnormal” activity.

Unlike in 2022 however, when China fired missiles over Taiwan during drills staged in protest over a visit to the island by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Monday’s announcement did not mention any live-fire exercises or no-fly areas.

One of the goals of Monday’s exercises, a PLA spokesman said, was to test the ability of Chinese forces to blockade “key ports and areas” around Taiwan. Such an action is often seen as a potential precursor – or even alternative – to an all-out invasion, forcing Taiwan to heel by choking off its resources and isolating its government.

Many military experts doubt the PLA’s ability – now and potentially ever – to successfully annex Taiwan, in what would be the largest and costliest aquatic invasion in history, and one that could set off a devastating regional or even global conflict. But as Taiwan has raised the alarm in recent years about Chinese “grey zone” tactics, including increasing coast guard presence in the Taiwan Strait and flying sorties around Taiwanese airspace, some observers have suggested Beijing could be setting the stage for a future blockade.

Skeptics however have pointed to the fact blockades have rarely been successful in achieving military objectives, while to enforce such a quarantine, China would have to attack and likely sink Taiwanese or international vessels, setting the stage for an escalation and end result that would be the same as if the PLA just launched an all-out invasion in the first place.

Speaking to reporters Monday, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said the island’s military was closely monitoring China’s drills, which he said had been launched without prior warning, in defiance of international norms.

“We will stay moderate and responsible, and work hard to maintain the cross-strait status quo to help maintain peace and stability in the region,” Mr. Wu said. “The current chaotic situation at the Taiwan Strait is caused by China’s military hegemony and its extreme pressure on Taiwan. We hope China will face the objective fact of the existence of the Republic of China and the people’s will of democratic way of life.”

He pointed out Mr. Lai had repeatedly called for dialogue with Beijing, including “holding out an olive branch” in his speech last week.

“But China ignored the message and continued to threaten Taiwan with military actions,” Mr. Wu said. “I think the world will watch closely and will not agree to the action.”

With files from Reuters and Alexandra Li