‘Almost a total brain drain’: Myanmar conscription law could cast long shadow as tens of thousands flee

To avoid conscription, David Htoo journeyed through the jungles of Myanmar, paying bribes at checkpoints along the way, before reaching a displaced persons camp where he shared his story with The Globe.Photography by James Griffiths/The Globe and Mail

At the first checkpoint, David Htoo’s blood ran cold. His heart thumping in his chest, he was sure he was about to be arrested. By the fifth, he had the process down to a routine.

The soldiers would waive down Mr. Htoo’s vehicle, full of young men like him fleeing Myanmar’s new conscription law, and demand to see their papers. Upon learning that none had the proper travel authorization, they would demand a bribe of about $40 per person before letting them go on their way.

It was in this fashion that Mr. Htoo travelled from Yangon, Myanmar’s financial capital, through mountains and jungle to a camp for internally displaced persons near the Thai border, where he spoke with The Globe and Mail dressed in shorts and a camouflage hat. He chewed on betel, a mild stimulant popular in Southeast Asia. “They were really open about requesting the bribe. I would just go to the soldier with the money in both hands and give it to him,” said Mr. Htoo, 28.

Mr. Htoo and thousands like him have fled their homes rather than be drafted into an army desperate for reinforcements in Myanmar's three-year-old civil war.

Myanmar’s ruling junta began conscripting men aged 18 to 35 in April in response to military setbacks across the country, including mass surrenders and defections to the resistance forces fighting to restore democracy in the wake of a February, 2021, coup. The junta has a target of about 60,000 conscripts this year, with some 15,000 drafted as of May, according to open source research by the Burma Affairs and Conflict Study (BACS) collective, a group of resistance-sympathizing investigators.

Many more young men have fled into the jungle or left Myanmar entirely, most ending up in neighbouring Thailand. Hard numbers are difficult to come by, with many living unregistered in resistance-held territory or as illegal migrants in Thai border towns, but the total figure could already be as high as 100,000, according to estimates by BACS and human-rights groups.

Myanmar’s economy has been in free fall since the coup, with inflation rampant and rates of poverty double what they were five years ago, according to UN statistics. Fighting in border regions has disrupted trade, and companies in major cities have struggled to find workers since the conscription law sparked a renewed exodus of young people.

“It’s almost a total brain drain,” said Saw Kapi, a veteran Myanmar political analyst. “No one with their right mind would stay if they are within the age range, especially if they are educated and can find work overseas.”

The junta has tried to stop potential conscripts from leaving by making it harder to acquire and renew passports and barring men aged 23 to 31 from seeking work permits abroad. But this appears to have done little to halt the flow.

Saw Taw Nee, a senior official with the Karen National Union, an ethnic militia that controls much of Myanmar’s border with Thailand, said “every brigade in every district” has been swamped by men fleeing the conscription law.

“When I visited troops in the field, I would see trucks full of 20 to 30 young people, six to seven every night,” he said.

In Mae Sot, Thailand, this 26-year-old from Myanmar's Mon state struggles to find work and tries not to think of all he has lost.

Many end up in Mae Sot, a town in northwestern Thailand, just across the border from Myawaddy, a key Myanmar trading hub. Sitting on plastic chairs in a cramped, one-room apartment on the edge of town, one recent arrival told The Globe how he had fled his home in Mon state, in eastern Myanmar, to live illegally in Mae Sot. The Globe is not identifying him to protect his safety.

The 26-year-old once planned to be a language teacher. Stuck in the apartment while he tries to find work in a town with too few jobs for illegal migrants and too many candidates, he has been learning Chinese online and trying to stop thinking about what he has lost. “Before the coup, I had so many dreams and ambitions,” he said. “We saw progress in our country. We had hopes and expectations for the future. The coup ended all that.”

Saw Tin Mya Ngwe fled his home near Yangon when government agents came to conscript young men.

In the camp for internally displaced persons across the border, 20-year-old Saw Tin Mya Ngwe told The Globe he hoped to move to Bangkok, where he’d heard it was easier to get work. Mr. Htoo previously worked for an NGO that has an office in the Thai capital and may be able to sponsor a visa for him. If possible, he plans to take Mr. Ngwe along with him.

Fellow refugee Tun Wint Aung, a lawyer and political activist from Magway, in central Myanmar, said he feared for the future “if there are no more educated young people left.”

“The country will become poor because young people are trying to leave any way they can,” he said.

With reporting by Aung Myo Myat in Mae Sot, Thailand

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