Isha Kerow, left, and other Somalis displaced by drought fill jerrycans with water distributed by the Norwegian Refugee Council, on the outskirts of Baidoa, in Somalia, on Oct. 29.Mohamed Sheikh Nor/The Associated Press
Regions affected by drought have expanded by as much as 40 per cent in many African countries since the 1980s, probably as a result of climate change, British scientists have concluded.
The research, published Thursday, helps explain the devastating drought that has swept across the Horn of Africa over the past two years, leaving more than 20 million people in urgent need of humanitarian aid, including almost eight million in Somalia.
Four consecutive rainy seasons have failed to arrive in the region, triggering the worst drought in 40 years and a looming famine in parts of Somalia. Early signs suggest the country is experiencing a fifth failed season, with rainfall at below-average levels. And a sixth has been forecast for early next year.
A team of scientists from the universities of Bristol and Cardiff found that droughts are becoming more frequent and intense since 1983 in much of East, Southern and Central Africa, with an increase in the annual number of severely dry months and an expansion of the land mass affected by drought.
Drought trend in Africa, 1983–2021
An analysis by a team of scientists from the universities of Bristol and Cardiff shows there was an increase in the annual number of dry and severely dry months in East, Southern and Central Africa between 1983 and 2021. The analysis, commissioned by WaterAid, also shows an increase in the percentage of landmass experiencing drought.
Drier
No change
Wetter
SOURCE: WATERAID
Drought trend in Africa, 1983–2021
An analysis by a team of scientists from the universities of Bristol and Cardiff shows there was an increase in the annual number of dry and severely dry months in East, Southern and Central Africa between 1983 and 2021. The analysis, commissioned by WaterAid, also shows an increase in the percentage of landmass experiencing drought.
Drier
No change
Wetter
SOURCE: WATERAID
Drought trend in Africa, 1983–2021
An analysis by a team of scientists from the universities of Bristol and Cardiff shows there was an increase in the annual number of dry and severely dry months in East, Southern and Central Africa between 1983 and 2021. The analysis, commissioned by WaterAid, also shows an increase in the percentage of landmass experiencing drought.
Drier
No change
Wetter
SOURCE: WATERAID
Based on population exposure data, the countries suffering the worst damage are Somalia, Sudan, South Africa, South Sudan and Namibia, the scientists found. These countries are already considered to have water shortages but are getting progressively drier over time, the research found.
Even countries with relatively heavy rainfall such as Cameroon, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have been gradually drying over the past four decades and may be affected by droughts over the next decade if the current trend continues, the report said.
Across the Horn of Africa, a devastating drought threatens starvation and famine for millions
From floods in South Africa to drought in Somalia, climate change is devastating millions of lives
The research was commissioned by British humanitarian group WaterAid. The charity is urging world leaders to consider the African drought crisis at their next annual climate conference, known as COP27, which begins Sunday in Egypt.
“Our new research is a warning bell that the dry land regions of Africa are heading into worse droughts and even lush, tropical countries may soon be feeling the effects of drought,” said a statement by WaterAid chief executive Tim Wainwright.
The drought in Somalia, in particular, has prompted growing alarm in recent months. A report in September by United Nations agencies and other relief organizations found that millions of Somalis are facing “extreme levels of acute hunger,” with signs of famine in some areas.
“Somalia has reached a tipping point,” the report said. “Starvation and death are likely already occurring.”
In their new report, the British scientists also found that some African countries – including Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Angola – are experiencing simultaneous crises, with half the country suffering acute water shortages while the other half sees more frequent flooding.
This phenomenon “creates immense challenges for both disaster response management and for long-term adaptation to these climate-related hazards,” Cardiff University professor Michael Singer said in a statement.
Despite the expanding drought zones, the researchers found one positive trend in the extreme weather analysis: satellite data seems to be showing an increase in groundwater storage in some African countries, possibly because rainfall is becoming more intense during “short rains” seasons.
This paradoxical discovery could mean that the aquifers in dry land regions are becoming replenished, which might allow droughts to be mitigated in countries such as Somalia and Ethiopia, they said.
“Groundwater is highly resilient to drought, so the potential for groundwater to save and transform lives in Africa is huge,” said a statement by Alan MacDonald, a groundwater scientist at the British Geological Survey.
“It is crucial this underused resource is developed sustainably so that the water reaches the people who need it most.”
The groundwater might be shallow enough for boreholes to reach it, the scientists said, but they acknowledged that it is not necessarily potable. And they cautioned that long-term weather patterns could also lead to a decrease in intense rainfall, which would affect groundwater levels.
Geoffrey York