Rep. Don Bacon and his wife, Angie Bacon, vote in a primary election at the Sarpy County Sheriff Administration Building in Papillion, Neb., on May 14.Chris Machian/The Associated Press
Nebraska’s second congressional district has accumulated a few nicknames. It sometimes goes by Pac-Man, because of the shape it cuts across Omaha and its surrounding areas. Democrats call it the “blue dot,” a district they hope to win again this year by turning their “Jomaha” signs into what could be a surprisingly consequential victory for Joe Biden, if he becomes the party’s presidential nominee despite growing concern about his age. Conservatives grudgingly accept it as the “purple dot,” a politically diverse spot on a state map otherwise coloured in Republican red.
Indeed, this one small district, with just more than 400,000 registered voters, is poised to play a role in determining who controls both the White House and Congress in this year’s elections. That possibility is a reflection of how quirks in the system for choosing the country’s president can endow small parts of the electoral map with unusual influence, but also of the razor-edge margins that have decided recent U.S. elections.
The district’s potential to be consequential is serious enough that strategists from both parties have already committed millions of dollars in ad spending to it, with Democrats airing commercials many months before the Nov. 5 vote.
U.S. presidents are selected not by voters, but by presidential electors. Most states assign all of their electors to the candidate that wins a majority. Nebraska is an exception (as is Maine), allocating electors to the winner of individual congressional districts. In two recent elections – 2008 and 2020 – Nebraska as a state has voted Republican, but the second congressional district has chosen a Democratic elector.
In most elections, a single elector matters little. But if the ballots fall a certain way – with Mr. Biden winning swing states Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Mr. Trump taking Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – the one vote from Nebraska’s second congressional district stands to determine whether Mr. Biden wins, or whether the country is deadlocked, placing the choice of president in the hands of the House of Representatives.
Laura Howard casts a ballot on May 14, in Waverly, Neb.Katy Cowell/The Associated Press
Don Bacon, the Republican who currently occupies the second district seat in the House of Representatives, called the scenario “plausible.”
“This is the tiebreaker state. The tiebreak district,” he said.
It’s not the first time the region has played an outsized role: In the 2008 election that sent Barack Obama to the White House for the first time, the state’s second congressional district was “my personal favourite target,” David Plouffe, who managed Mr. Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign, wrote in The Audacity to Win. He recounted a conversation with Mr. Obama about how Nebraska could edge the Democrats to an unusual victory.
“Plouffe, that’s interesting daydreaming,” Mr. Obama responded. “Let’s try not to have it all come down to Nebraska 2.”
In the end, Mr. Obama won by a wide enough margin that a single electoral college vote became inconsequential. But he did win Nebraska’s second congressional district. So did Mr. Biden, in 2020.
This year again, Democrats have identified the Nebraska district as a key area of focus – and spending.
“We’re considered a battleground state,” said Precious McKesson, executive director of the Nebraska Democratic Party. She was the chosen elector for the second congressional district in 2008.
“The voters in this district could make the decision of the 2024 presidential election,” she said.
Of course, it takes a very narrow set of outcomes to make Nebraska pivotal, and polling suggests that, at the moment, Mr. Trump enjoys a comfortable position in key swing states – a position that has improved after Mr. Biden’s weak debate performance last week.
“In the overall scheme of things, I don’t think he’s so worried about this electoral vote, just based on the polling in these target states,” said Sam Fischer, a retired Republican campaign consultant in Omaha.
Aaron Bryant casts his ballot for the Nebraska primary election at Lexus of Omaha on May 14.Nikos Frazier/The Associated Press
But in many ways, what is taking place in Nebraska’s second congressional district is emblematic of the broader election campaign. The district is ethnically diverse and politically divided, split between urban Omaha and more conservative rural districts, with 38 per cent of voters registered Republican, 35 per cent Democrat and much of the remainder independent.
“Omaha voters are driven by a sense of fairness and they’re solutions-oriented – and I think they’re a good proxy for a certain type of median American voter,” said Charlie Ellsworth, who was a regional field director in Omaha for the Obama campaign in 2008.
Republican public opinion surveys show that local voters place the border, crime and inflation at the top of their list of concerns in the coming election. That, Mr. Bacon hopes, will work to his advantage as he seeks re-election.
“The issues are on our side in this district,” the congressman said in an interview. He pointed to the relatively sunny economic situation in Nebraska, which is led by Republicans and boasts one of the faster-growing economies in the country. “Hopefully people will give credit where credit is due,” he said.
But like elsewhere, politics here are being shaped by battles within the political right. Nebraska’s state Republican apparatus has been taken over by populist supporters of Donald Trump, who have refused to endorse their own party’s candidates – including Mr. Bacon.
“It’s a liability for us,” said Mr. Bacon, who is considered by some to be one of the most bipartisan members of Congress. “There are some people that would rather have purity than the majority.”
His opponent, Democrat Tony Vargas, has seized on the conflict to suggest that even among Republicans, many don’t support Mr. Bacon – a candidate Mr. Vargas nonetheless criticized as in thrall to Mr. Trump.
Mr. Vargas has campaigned as a fiscally responsible member of the state legislature who is dedicated to lowering health care costs and fighting for abortion rights.
“Republicans are not standing on the side of women,” he said. “They’re not standing on the side of common sense decision-making. They’ve gone too far.”
Money is pouring in to help both candidates make their case. By the end of June, Mr. Bacon had raised $3.4-million, Mr. Vargas $2.4-million. That is more than four times the total raised in the neighbouring district.
Still, in terms of its importance to the federal election, a single district in Nebraska is considerably less crucial than major swing states, noted Randall Adkins, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska Omaha who specializes in campaigns and elections.
The attention and the funds directed toward the district, he said, reflect the immense and growing sums of cash now coursing through the U.S. electoral system, not merely a tight presidential election race. (OpenSecrets, an independent non-profit, tracked US$14.4-billion in spending on the 2020 election, more than double the previous presidential campaign.)
“The biggest thing that’s driving it is that they just have money to spend,” Prof. Adkins said. That’s enough to direct funds to priorities, even if there is only a slim possibility they matter.
“When you’ve got that much money, you can spend money on one electoral college vote in Nebraska.”