With the Australian Open underway, Canada's best shot at winning its first major singles title in a men's tournament rests with Milos Raonic.
By analyzing random samples of points Raonic has played on hard-court surfaces during his pro career, and doing the same for his main rivals, we've identified trends that help identify Raonic's path to success over the next two weeks. No matter who stands on the other side of the Melbourne hard courts, Raonic will need to get better in two areas if he wants to break through: keeping most points short and improving his results on longer points.
(Data for this article comes from the
Match Charting Project hosted by Jeff Sackmann at tennisabstract.com. Volunteers manually tracked each point for more than 2,700 ATP and WTA matches, assigning values for characteristics such as type of shot, shot direction and depth, and rally length.)
We organized the points based on the number of shots it took to play them, revealing some important tendencies. Let's take a closer look.
Keeping most points short
On a macro level, we know that the majority of points in professional tennis are decided in the first four shots; points longer than that represent a much smaller portion of the total.
Distribution of points by rally length
Random sample of 1,000 points played by
eight elite players
300
55% of points
are won in the
first three strokes
200
100
39% of points
6% of points
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Distribution of points by rally length
Random sample of 1,000 points played by eight elite players
300
55% of points
are won in the
first three strokes
200
100
39% of points
6% of points
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Distribution of points by rally length
Random sample of 1,000 points played by eight elite players
300
55% of points
are won in the
first three strokes
200
100
39% of points
6% of points
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Distribution of points by rally length
Random sample of 1,000 points played by eight elite players
300
55% of points
are won in the
first three strokes
200
100
39% of points
6% of points
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
The above chart shows the distribution of hard-court points by rally length for the eight elite players we analyzed (the Top 5 in the world plus Federer, Nadal and Marin Cilic, based on a randomly generated sample of 1,000). This breakdown suggests that about 55 per cent of all points are decided on the serve, return, or the next shot. About 39 per cent of points last between four and 12 shots, while just six per cent last longer than that. (When the points do get longer, Raonic tends to underperform compared with his main rivals. Keeping the points shorter means avoiding too many long rallies.)
In Raonic's case, these trends are exacerbated. He has a deadly serve but struggles (relative to the elite class) with his return game. In tandem, these two tendencies mean 66.5 per cent of the points played during Raonic's matches are over before the fourth shot. His success rate on those points is better than half, but that puts him about middle of the pack. Why? The discrepancy between serve and return points is stark: No one in the elite group can touch Raonic's success rate on his own serve (83.7 per cent), but his 18 per cent success rate on his opponent's serve in short points is seventh out of the eight. Only world No. 4 Stan Wawrinka's is worse.
This suggests Raonic can improve his success rate on the shorter points he already tends to play. A deeper look at his return-of-serve troubles should tell us how.
Following his loss to Grigor Dimitrov in the semi-final of the Brisbane International this month, just ahead of the Australian Open, Raonic picked up on a specific area of weakness that is made abundantly clear in the table above: second-serve returns.
"He won over 80 per cent of second-serve points, which is, for lack of a better word, pretty bad on my side," Raonic said. His overall tendencies aren't as bad as that one match, but Raonic wins fewer points on his opponent's second serve than the average Top 50 player, something that will have to be corrected if he is to win a major.
Raonic sometimes wins praise because his ability to return serve isn't as bad as some of the other big servers of his era, like John Isner or Ivo Karlovic. But doing well for a power server won't be good enough to overcome the likes of Nadal and Murray. At six-foot-five, Raonic shouldn't lumber around the court the way Isner (six-foot-10 ) or Karlovic (six-foot-11) do.
Of course, Raonic needs to serve at an exceptionally high level; he's one of the greatest servers in the modern game and it's an overpowering asset he possesses. But he also needs to find a way to return serve at an acceptable rate. Winning at least 50 per cent of points on his opponents' second serve would put him at the average for a Top 50 player.
A best-in-class serve combined with a respectable return game should result in more short points, and a better success rate in those points.
Improved play on longer points
Supposing Raonic can take care of his serve and contend with the upper echelon on return of serve, he will have the edge on the two-thirds of points lasting three shots or less. Points of four to 12 strokes represent 33 per cent of the total share in Raonic's matches, and that's where we'll turn our attention now.
Raonic’s point performance by rally length
Rally length
(number of times ball
is hit in by both players)
Points
won
Points
lost
2 strokes
4
6
8
10
12
One-stroke rallies are
either an ace or an error
from the return player
Like all players, Raonic
plays fewer points in
longer rallies, but his
drop-off is more extreme
Raonic’s point performance by rally length
Rally length
(number of times ball
is hit in by both players)
Points
won
Points
lost
Like all players, Raonic plays
fewer points in longer rallies, but
his drop-off is more extreme
2 strokes
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
One-stroke rallies are either an ace or an error from the return player
Raonic’s point performance by rally length
Rally length
(number of times ball
is hit in by both players)
Points
won
Points
lost
2 strokes
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
One-stroke rallies are
either an ace or an error
from the return player
Like all players, Raonic plays
fewer points in longer rallies, but
his drop-off is more extreme
Raonic’s point performance by rally length
Rally length
(number of times ball
is hit in by both players)
Points
won
Points
lost
Like all players, Raonic plays
fewer points in longer rallies, but
his drop-off is more extreme
2 strokes
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
One-stroke rallies are either an ace or an error from the return player
At first glance, Raonic's distribution curve appears to follow normal patterns, but zeroing in on the 4 to 12 range (see below) highlights his deficiencies next to the rest of the elite eight. (All charts were built using a random sample of 1,000 hard-court shots for each player.)
How Raonic compares to other top players
in longer rallies
Nadal is a remarkably
consistent player,
outperforming Raonic
in longer rallies
Rafael Nadal
Raonic
4 strokes
6
8
10
12
Novak Djokovic
Andy Murray
Roger Federer
Stan Wawrinka
Kei Nishikori
Marin Cilic
How Raonic compares to other top players in longer rallies
Rafael Nadal
Nadal is a remarkably consistent player,
outperforming Raonic in longer rallies
Raonic
4 strokes
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Novak Djokovic
Andy Murray
Roger Federer
Stan Wawrinka
Kei Nishikori
Marin Cilic
How Raonic compares to other top players in longer rallies
Rafael Nadal
Nadal is a remarkably consistent
player, outperforming Raonic in
longer rallies
Raonic
4 strokes
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Novak Djokovic
Andy Murray
Roger Federer
Stan Wawrinka
Kei Nishikori
Marin Cilic
How Raonic compares to other top players in longer rallies
Rafael Nadal
Nadal is a remarkably consistent player,
outperforming Raonic in longer rallies
Raonic
4 strokes
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Novak Djokovic
Andy Murray
Roger Federer
Stan Wawrinka
Kei Nishikori
Marin Cilic
It's easy to understand why just about every one of Raonic's main rivals is favoured in points that last beyond the first three strokes. The knock on big servers is that they lack the athleticism and quickness to play defence and survive longer rallies.
But winning more points in that 4-to-12-shot range could make the difference between claiming a title or failing to reach even the semi-final. If Raonic can find a way to win a greater share of the longer points, he will neutralize one common strategy opponents use against him: defend Raonic's serve well enough to lengthen points, move him around the court and push his stamina, fitness and quickness to the breaking point. This tactic is especially threatening to Raonic in the heat of summer in Australia.
The good news for Raonic is that he has shown improvement on longer points during his rise to the Top 5. In all 4-to-12-shot points tracked by tennisabstract.com, his winning percentage went from 42.6 in 2013 to 50.4 in 2016. His work with new coach Richard Krajicek has included a focus on being more aggressive and moving around the court better.
"There were two focuses," Raonic said in a recent interview, "spending less time pounding my lower body on concrete, then focused on losing a little bit of weight. Those hours spent with a few extra pounds here and there can make a difference."
Now that we have shown what to watch for, it will be interesting to see if – and how – Raonic manages to break through this month in Melbourne.