Duncan Keith of the Blackhawks and Victor Hedman of the Lightning are top contenders for the Conn Smythe Trophy – but the winner may depend on the final game of the series.Getty Images
This is the rare year when the NHL's playoff MVP race was clearer before the Stanley Cup final began.
Coming out of the conference finals, the Chicago Blackhawks and Tampa Bay Lightning had a few key standouts. Duncan Keith and Jonathan Toews were excellent as the Blackhawks' series against the Anaheim Ducks wore on, proving to be difference-makers in the pivotal final games; the Triplets line broke through in a big way for the Lightning, with Tyler Johnson (nine points in seven games) especially standing out.
But as the final hits Game 6, those stars aren't the story. Most have been rather quiet, especially offensively: No player has more than four points in the first five games of the series, and those with four are largely depth players like Ryan Callahan and Teuvo Teravainen.
Top offensive players like Steven Stamkos and Patrick Kane, meanwhile, have only one assist apiece in the final, essentially ending their bid for the Conn Smythe.
That leaves two defencemen as the leading candidates for the MVP, and the final game (or two) as big swing factors. If Game 6 in Chicago is close, there will be a Conn Smythe vote in the press box at some point in the third period on Monday night, which means making a big impact early in the game could help.
If the series ends in six, a Blackhawk will almost certainly be named MVP. If we go seven games, what happens over those final 120-plus minutes will be pivotal.
Keeping that in mind, here's how the race stands at this point:
1. Duncan Keith, Chicago
There's a strong case to be made Keith should have won a Conn Smythe already given his performance two years ago. This time around, he has again been the Blackhawks' workhorse, logging nearly 30 minutes a game, posting big possession numbers and helping out on offence. In fact, he's tied for the NHL lead in playoff points at 5-on-5 with 14 in 22 games. Keith has been less visible in the final than previous rounds, but over the balance of all four, he's a deserving MVP. He would become the fourth defenceman to win in the last 20 years, joining Scott Stevens, Nick Lidstrom and Scott Niedermayer.
2. Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay
If the Lightning battle back to force a Game 7, the voting could well come down to the two top defencemen involved. Hedman was dominant early in the final, especially in Game 3, when he assisted on two key goals. A defenceman on the losing team has never won the Conn Smythe, but there are a few scenarios where that could happen given Keith and Hedman are the likely choices.
3. Jonathan Toews, Chicago
The Blackhawks captain was absolutely dominant in Round 3 with five goals in the seven games – including several terrific performances late in the series – but he has been quiet in the final, despite playing more than 20 minutes a game. It would take a strong showing in the final two games for him to win.
4. Corey Crawford, Chicago
It's hard to argue with Crawford's series against the Lightning. He has allowed only 10 goals in the five games, with a .926 save percentage. He's outplayed Ben Bishop and been airtight in Games 4 and 5, helping give his team the series lead going back to Chicago.
Long shots: Tyler Johnson, Patrick Kane, Nikita Kucherov, Ben Bishop