Maple Leafs’ Nazem Kadri carries the puck with Sabres’ Tyler Ennis in pursuit at Buffalo’s First Niagara Center on Oct. 21.Jen Fuller/Getty Images
It's only six games, and six games isn't much in a long NHL season.
But we're beginning to get a pretty good idea of what the Toronto Maple Leafs are, and what their season will look like.
They're dull. They're well-organized and efficient – defensively, anyway. They struggle to score. And, so far, they have really struggled to win.
That probably won't go up on the Air Canada Centre marquee, but it isn't a particularly bad thing.
Throughout October, the Leafs have been quietly plugging along in the long shadow of the Blue Jays playoff run, getting (for them) very little media attention. For those that haven't been following along, the early summation is that the Leafs deserve a bit better than their 1-3-2 record. But not much.
New coach Mike Babcock has done a good job of coaxing the work ethic and confidence out of this team, and they're much harder to beat to the puck than the past several seasons.
By the numbers, the Leafs are generating more scoring chances than last year (13.3 per game versus 12, according to war-on-ice.com). They're allowing fewer (11.8 per game compared to 14.1). On average, they're outshooting and out-puck-possessing opponents.
But, without Phil Kessel, they also lack a game breaker, and the power play in particular is out of sorts (12.5 per cent).
Wednesday's 2-1 shootout loss to Buffalo illustrated the situation nicely. Leafs newcomer P.A. Parenteau scored early and then they barred the door until the game's dying minutes, when a bad giveaway by Nazem Kadri turned into a quick shot past netminder Jonathan Bernier.
Toronto was the better team in overtime, with Kadri and James van Riemsdyk taking full advantage of the extra ice to pile up a few quality chances. The shootout was the crap shoot it tends to be.
It was another very close game – something that applies to five of the Leafs' six games – that could have went either way.
"We had lots of opportunities after that," Babcock said of Kadri's mistake, which the coach tried to play down in an effort to play good cop as long as he can. "Had a little trouble hitting the thing with red around it there. We just couldn't hit the net.
"The positive thing for me is we've got points in three of our last four games," Babcock later added. "But [we want to get our] belief system to when you walk into the rink you know you're going to win. That's the step we have to get to."
It's hard to imagine that coming before next season. Or beyond.
They're not winning, but through one training camp and two weeks of regular-season play, the Leafs rebuilding appears to be on course. Babcock's teachings are getting through. His young players are being given enormous opportunity, with Morgan Rielly leading the team in ice time (22 minutes a game) and Kadri among the leaders among forwards.
And, yes, they look very much like a team on course for a good draft pick. Top 10 for sure. Top five if the scoring woes continue and the goaltending – which has been here and there – doesn't hold up.
Then the draft lottery is a factor.
Putting an NHL team back together after a dismantling is a painstakingly slow process, and the reality in Toronto is the dismantling part isn't even over. The Sabres' slow start is a testament to how tough rebuilding can be, as even with some better pieces in place they're not yet scaring any of the contenders.
What Buffalo has that the Leafs don't, however, is Jack Eichel – the kind of unbelievable, sure-fire top talent that will, in his prime, be a difference maker a lot of nights.
But Toronto's is likely on the way.
All they need is to keep playing well enough to fall just short, while the young players learn and improve – from Babcock and in the minors – in preparation for what comes down the line.
So far, so good.