Tampa's Steven Stamkos celebrates after scoring against Montreal's Carey Price Tuesday.Mike Carlson/Getty Images
Bounces, by their very nature, are fickle and generally unreliable.
They also play a huge role in pro sports – hockey in particular.
The Montreal Canadiens' season is at an end, and the Tampa Bay Lightning's admirable display of skating, skill and determination in Game 6 only furnishes part of the explanation for their 4-1 win on close-out night in Florida.
When the puck takes a friendly hop, confidence ensues – it's kind of a zero-sum thing. So after benefiting from a series of breaks in the last two games, the Habs should have been worried on Tuesday.
Brandon Prust created a neutral zone turnover, Tampa defenceman Nikita Nesterov fell over while pivoting (a lucky break!); Lars Eller swooped in and made a backhand pass that the onrushing Prust, who had beaten his checker to the net, couldn't knock into an open cage (not so lucky).
A few minutes later, Montreal's Brendan Gallagher – the club's most consistent forward in the postseason – made a sweet little move to get around Tampa's Jason Garrison; the puck fell to Tomas Plekanec, all alone in front of the net (a favourable bounce!). Plekanec could not beat goalie Ben Bishop.
And 2 minutes 26 seconds later, Plekanec couldn't corral a blocked shot that deflected off teammate Alexei Emelin, and gave the puck away to Lightning forward Ondrej Palat in the slot. Palat made a quick feed to Nikita Kucherov, who made a nifty redirect over goalie Carey Price's shoulder.
Montreal's Max Pacioretty had said earlier in the week that the Habs were one mistake away from losing the series. Well, there it was.
If the Habs felt fortunate going into the first intermission down just 1-0, they were swiftly reminded who the better team was. Tampa flew out of the gate to start the second period, and five minutes into the frame defenceman Matthew Carle won a battle with Prust in the neutral zone. Winger Alex Killorn grabbed the loose puck and set sail for the Montreal end.
As he crossed the middle, he dropped a short pass to Steven Stamkos, who wired a trademark wrist shot into the top shelf past a helpless Price.
Montreal isn't a team that gives up readily, and nearly got on the board twice. But when Tampa went to the man-advantage a few minutes later, Palat found the far side past Price after a sumptuous feed from Kucherov.
There's a school of thought that good bounces have to be earned, and if such is indeed the case the Lightning did so.
Montreal had several more chances to make inroads on the scoreboard – a third period breakaway from Dale Weise being the most notable – but Bishop did what he had to (his only blemish a Pacioretty goal in garbage time).
Price, who had won seven straight elimination games coming in, battled to the end, stealing a goal from Palat, and then robbing Tyler Johnson on a shorthanded two-on-one in the third.
But as defenceman P.K. Subban said this week, "Carey's a great player, but he's human."
On this night, his team simply couldn't find a way through a better opponent.
After watching the a 3-0 series lead against the Ottawa Senators slip to 3-2 in the first round, the Habs now understand just how hard it is to get back on even terms.
Now the discussion turns to the off-season, which promises to be a busy one.
The priority for general manager Marc Bergevin will likely be to sign trade deadline acquisition Jeff Petry – assuming the big, Michigan-born defenceman is interested in continuing his Montreal adventure.
But there are also other questions to answer. The Habs scored only 23 goals in 12 playoff games, and their top two centres – Plekanec and David Desharnais – contributed only four and three points respectively.
It's hard to make a case that the Habs are strong enough up the middle to truly contend, and there is some work required on the blue line as well; Andrei Markov is plainly declining as he approaches his 37th birthday, and Alexei Emelin is no one's idea of a $4.1-million a year defenceman.
The Canadiens will take pride in refusing to go quietly. But they will rue not being able to do more in a season when Price is in his prime, and essential players like Pacioretty and Subban are on the cusp of theirs.
The window won't be open forever. Successful transitions tend to happen quickly.