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Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Luke Schenn celebrates his goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning with Noel Acciari, left, and Alexander Kerfoot, right, on April 11, in Tampa, Fla.Chris O'Meara/The Associated Press

It has been a little more than four years since I moved to Ontario from Alberta to cover the Maple Leafs for The Globe and Mail. In Toronto there is no bigger sports beat. The players, especially the stars, are treated by fans as bigger than life. There is never a shortage of material – on or off the ice. Personal issues, a pandemic, a car jacking – you see it all.

A little more than a month into that first campaign, Mike Babcock was fired as head coach. Barely got to know him.

To be truthful, it has been a mostly odd four seasons. This is really the first that could be said to be normal – if wearing masks in the dressing room at the beginning of the year is normal.

I was in The Globe’s office in downtown Toronto on March 12, 2020, when the coronavirus shut down sports and everything else. Like many, I figured things would be tickety boo in a matter of weeks. It was nearly five months before the NHL playoffs would be staged in bubbles.

I covered the Maple Leafs qualifying series against the Blue Jackets virtually. The following year, when Toronto bumbled its way to a humiliating first-round loss to the Canadiens, I did the same. There was no advantage to attending games in empty arenas with no access to coach or players.

Last year I covered the first round between the Maple Leafs and Lightning and travelled to Tampa, but missed Game 7 back home because of a COVID scare.

In none of those first three years did I anticipate that Toronto would win a round.

People ask me if I root for the team. The truth is, I don’t. It’s always easier if the club you cover is doing well – the mood surrounding it is much better – but for most of us in the profession there is something more pragmatic than wins and losses. That is being able to meet tight deadlines.

Overtime is thrilling for fans and a nightmare for journalists whose job it is to file a game story as soon as the buzzer. There is little time to wax poetic. I can only speak for myself but what I mostly root for is the outcome to be clear early on. That makes making deadline much easier. It would be fair to say that I never root for extra time.

So what do I think about the Maple Leafs this year with their Stanley Cup proceedings set to begin on Tuesday? Pay no attention to Cathal Kelly: I can hardly believe I am saying this, but I think they will win at least one round this year. Possibly another depending on what happens in the other first-round series.

It has been 19 years since Toronto won one, the longest drought in the league. That pretty much means a generation of fans has never experienced it. They will be delirious when it happens.

Tampa Bay is not an easy out, but the Lightning looks less intimidating now than in the two previous years these teams have met in the playoffs. It hasn’t played well for a while but that is hard to gauge. The Lightning has known for a long time that they weren’t going to catch Toronto in the standings and also that nobody was going to catch them. There never was a need for a big push.

The same is true for the Maple Leafs, but they have years of failure as motivation.

This is a different and much better team than the three previous here that I have covered. It plays much better on defence and has more of an edge. Those are critical traits necessary to succeed. A meaningless regular-season game between them in Tampa this week was chippy. Pat Maroon and Luke Schenn – close friends off the ice – exchanged blows. Corey Perry (of course) and Michael Bunting (more of course) also squared off.

Toronto nearly won last year. Jack Campbell was better than Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay’s great goaltender, with the exception of the final game. Vasilevskiy is still terrific but has shown more cracks than in the past.

A concern here – and a game-breaker – would be if Ilya Samsonov is not healthy. The Maple Leafs’ netminder has been nursing undisclosed injuries. His numbers are similar to Vasilevskiy’s but he needs to be in top form for Toronto to win.

The Atlantic Division rivals are evenly matched. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander are close if not equal to Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos. Perhaps the towering Victor Hedman gives the Lightning a slight edge on defence.

One thing that is hard to calculate is the will to win. Can Tampa Bay, which has won two of the past three Stanley Cups, muster that same effort again?

Not this time.

I will take the Maple Leafs in six.

Warning to those who wage: Before the season started, I picked the Bruins not to make the playoffs.

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