Toronto Maple Leafs' Michael Bunting, centre, celebrates his goal against the Montreal Canadiens with teammates Ryan O'Reilly, left, and Auston Matthews during third period NHL hockey action in Toronto on April 8.Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press
Brace yourself. Oddsmakers are fairly well in agreement that the Maple Leafs are about to end the longest run of opening-round futility within the postseason in the National Hockey League.
On Monday the U.S.-based sportsbook BetOnline predicted that Toronto had a 63-per-cent chance to win the first-round series against Tampa Bay that begins at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday night.
It has been 19 years since the club reached the second round so that is a pretty bold statement. The same outfit declared the Maple Leafs the fourth choice to win the Stanley Cup after Boston, Edmonton and Colorado. The last time they hoisted the trophy was 1967.
None of this means much of anything once the puck drops, but it is at least fodder for fantasizing for beleaguered fans. Toronto has been eliminated in the opening round six years in a row and is 0-7 since 2004.
But now bookmakers have anointed it a favourite.
When asked about it, Auston Matthews shrugged.
“That doesn’t play any part in our mindset,” Toronto’s star centre said after practice at the Ford Performance Centre. “We’ll leave that to everybody else to decide.”
The Maple Leafs concluded the regular season with a 50-21-11 mark which was good enough for second in the Atlantic Division but far behind the record-breaking Bruins. The Lightning were third at 46-30-6 and struggled over the second half.
Despite that, Tampa Bay’s pedigree cannot be denied. It has won two of the past three Stanley Cups and is attempting to become the first team to reach the final in four straight seasons since the New York Islanders did it five times from 1980-84.
“Regardless of how their game has trended recently they are still a team that knows how to win and pull it together at this time of year,” Matthews said. “They obviously know what it takes. It is up to us to push ourselves and try to get over that hump.”
Toronto’s final practice session before the showdown begins was high-spirited.
“I think everyone is excited,” Sheldon Keefe, the head coach, said. “You want to push past all the preparations and get to the fun stuff, which is competing. That’s where our players are at.”
A year ago the same opponents met in the first round and the Lightning came back to win in seven games. The Maple Leafs jumped out to a 3-1 lead and lost in seven to the Canadiens in 2021, and were eliminated in a best-of-five tournament play-in round by the Blue Jackets in 2020.
With each defeat pressure has built.
“There is pressure to win every year,” Morgan Rielly, the defenceman, said. “It’s a new year and a new opportunity. We are confident in what we have.”
Said Keefe: “The pressure is a privilege. There are a lot of teams that aren’t playing hockey at this time of year. We feel great about our team. We know what the challenges are ahead.”
Toronto won two of three meetings with Tampa Bay this season, including a close one last week in Florida. With nothing much to play for at that point, neither team fielded its full lineup. Jon Cooper, the Lightning’s head coach, likened the intensity to that of an exhibition game.
(Okay, maybe a chippy preseason contest where cross-checks and punches were thrown.)
“It’s a whole new gig tomorrow,” Rielly said. “We have a different lineup and they may have a different lineup, too. It will be much different than a week ago. I would not expect to draw too many comparisons.”
Both teams have skilled skaters and have been good defensively. Tampa Bay may have an advantage with Andrei Vasilevskiy in the net. He led the Lightning to championships in 2020 and 2021, and in the latter year also won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the Stanley Cup playoffs. He has a 63-38 record in the postseason and a .923 save percentage over his career.
At 27-10-5 with a .919 save percentage, Ilya Samsonov has been excellent for Toronto but has little experience in the playoffs. He went 1-6 in seven postseason starts with the Washington Capitals before he signed with Toronto last summer.
The Maple Leafs added forwards Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari and Sam Lafferty before the trade deadline, as well as defencemen Jake McCabe and Luke Schenn to shore up their lineup for a playoff run.
Oddsmakers like what they see.
When asked what it felt like to be a favourite, Rielly chuckled.
“I don’t really pay much attention to hockey gambling odds,” he said.
Told the oddsmakers like the Maple Leafs, he grinned.
“That’s great.”