When last we were in regular contact with the Toronto Blue Jays, they were trying to explain how everything was going just fine. They’d been rumbled out of the playoffs (again), but that was all part of the learning curve.
Who decided to pull a cruising starter in the middle of a must-win game and replace him with somebody throwing batting practice? It’s impossible to say. But watch this space. To hear the Jays tell it, the Jays were coming back better than ever.
It was an off-season of great change … in the coaching staff. You know what your boss likes to say about raises – a new title is just as good.
Don Mattingly was promoted from bench coach to bench coach and offensive co-ordinator. It’s not clear what Mattingly will be co-ordinating. Maybe he calls the hitting coach before he gets in his car and reminds him to bring the bats?
The team changed as well. It got a little worse.
Instead of Shohei Ohtani, the Jays got Justin Turner. Instead of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they got Yariel Rodriguez. Instead of Juan Soto, they got Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
In every instance, the Jays teased a brand-name, story-altering signing and delivered a knockoff version of that player.
The Blue Jays lost out on Shohei Ohtani, but they want everyone to know that things are just fine
On Thursday, general manager Ross Atkins told reporters in Florida about his long-term pursuit of Turner – “We’ve been recruiting and learning about JT over the years. He’s been in our sights for some time.”
Cool cool cool. I mean, if it were me, I might not have waited “over the years” until the guy was about to turn 40 and unable to play a field position before signing him to a one-year deal. But each of us courts in our own way.
On Day 1 of spring training, the most noticeable difference was starter Alek Manoah. He’s back in the big leagues. Where did he go the second half of last season? Never you mind. It’s like that pitching change in the playoffs – it shall remain a mystery.
Manoah looks different. He’s as lean as a greyhound. Which is odd, because before his pitching delivery fell apart, the guy posted and talked non-stop about his workout routine. So was he in elite-professional-athlete shape then or not?
When a third baseman radically alters his body, that’s probably for the best. When a pitcher does it, it’s time to worry. Pitching is about mechanics, not fitness. Your car would be lighter and possibly faster if it had only three wheels, but it works better as it is.
This rule goes back to former Jays reliever Brandon League, who showed up one spring having transformed himself from a reedy surfer dude into a Californian Lou Ferrigno. League looked amazing. Unfortunately, he could no longer put his arm over his head without shredding ligaments.
Maybe Manoah’s better, or maybe he only superficially looks that way. This seems to be the Blue Jays’ approach as well.
Turner is replacing departed DH Brandon Belt who, when you think back on it now, was better than advertised. That said, he still hasn’t found a new job. Kiner-Falefa is a cheaper Matt Chapman. Kevin Kiermaier is an older, lesser Kevin Kiermaier returned on a quickie deal because no one else offered him anything better.
The ‘that’s baseball’ excuse is starting to wear thin after another Blue Jays disappointment
If you buy the glass-totally-full story, the Jays just have to figure out the offensive side of things. Presumably, this is Mattingly’s job – though, if so, it’s not clear why he needed a new title before getting to work on it.
Top of his to-do list is Vlad Guerrero Jr. The Jays’ vision of off-season performance enhancement was taking Guerrero to arbitration so that he could sit there and listen to his employer list all his faults as a ballplayer.
If you want the guy, why antagonize him? If you want rid of him, why bother knocking him down where everyone can see? Like many decisions the Jays make, it’s hard to find the logic.
The issue with the ‘just fix the offence’ approach is that it assumes the pitching will remain where it was last season. That’s possible. The Jays have good depth at starter, even without Manoah.
But last season, the Jays’ pitching corps enjoyed unusual good health. Their top four guys started 30-plus games. The Yankees had two 30-game starters. The Red Sox had none. This is in large part why the three teams finished where they did, relative to each other.
Will the Jays have that kind of luck again? Maybe. But it’s probably not safe to assume so. Which is why you want to go out and substantially improve a team that wasn’t good enough to begin with.
For a long time, the Jays got away with this sort of passivity because they were still figuring things out. After three short trips to the playoffs in the past four seasons, you have to squint real hard to see this team as up and comers. They look more like impending down and outers.
They look more and more like some possible-future aged-out version of the Baltimore Orioles. They lucked into a couple of generational prospects and put the organization on cruise control.
From a business perspective, who can blame them? The current executive has made transformative renovations to the Rogers Centre that allow them to scrape a lot more money from the stadium. The building is full more often than not.
Most important, Toronto crowds enjoy being fooled. Just tell them this team could be great and they’ll buy it every time. Even if they don’t win anything in this city, Guerrero and Bo Bichette helped make that possible. They were the cornerstone of a successful business-rejuvenation plan.
But from a baseball perspective, it’s starting to feel like gravity is getting a hold of the perpetually on-the-rise Toronto Blue Jays.