Toronto Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock yells from the bench during third period NHL hockey action against the Florida Panthers in Toronto on March 25, 2019.Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press
There was a lot of brave talk about moving on to playing the Boston Bruins in the playoffs after the Toronto Maple Leafs wobbled out of the NHL’s regular season with their third consecutive loss.
“So, it's time to move on to something that we all deem is real important,” Leafs head coach Mike Babcock said after Saturday’s 6-5 shootout loss to the Montreal Canadiens, perhaps revealing why his team has not looked engaged for at least a month.
“We haven't had as much to play for here this past little bit and it's been evident in our play,” Babcock added. “So, now, we've got to go to the next level and play a good Boston team.”
Auston Matthews said much the same from the players’ side of the dressing room: “I think this is what we’ve been waiting for. I think we’re excited so we’ll put this one behind us.”
But history, both recent and ancient, says the Leafs cannot be logically picked to beat the Bruins when their first-round series opens in Boston on Thursday despite all their talk.
The Leafs have not played like an elite team since February, which makes all their talk about suddenly flipping on a switch and giving the Bruins a fight simply mystifying. In the first three months of the season, the Leafs were every bit the young, speedy contender they claim to be, running up a record of 26-11-2. Since Jan. 1, however, the Leafs were a far more pedestrian 20-17-6, and their only good month was February (9-4-2).
Ancient history does not bode well for the Leafs either. They have not beaten the Bruins in a playoff series since 1959. This is the 16th time the Leafs and Bruins have met in the postseason. The Bruins have eliminated the Leafs from the playoffs in their past five encounters, including the soul-crushing comeback in Game 7 in 2013 and last year’s seven-game beating.
Poor defensive play and inconsistency from goaltender Frederik Andersen were the biggest problems in recent days, although the scorers seemed to fizzle whenever the Leafs found their defensive game. Some might say the fact the Leafs had a playoff spot locked up relatively early and knew they would face the Bruins again was a mitigating factor, but that was no excuse.
William Nylander and Kasperi Kapanen both scored against the Canadiens, and the Leafs have to hope that is the start of a trend. In 54 games played after his lengthy contract standoff ended, Nylander had seven goals. Kapanen finally scored his 20th goal of the season. His previous goal was back on Feb. 25.
The Leafs need Nylander and Kapanen to find their scoring touch because the Bruins line up so well against them. Where other NHL teams have trouble matching the Leafs’ depth at centre with John Tavares, Matthews and Nazem Kadri, the Bruins can counter with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci.
In fact, Bergeron and linemates David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand dominated the Leafs so completely in last year’s series that the Bruins’ third line did not have to be a factor, although it was at times. This means Kadri is going to be a key player in this series since he is likely to be pitted against Bergeron as much as possible. It also means he cannot take himself out of action as he did a year ago when he drew a three-game suspension in the first game for a retaliatory headshot on Bruins winger Tommy Wingels.
Neither Matthews nor Nylander was a factor in last year’s series and that cannot happen again this year if the Leafs hope to shake the Boston hex. And Mitch Marner needs to keep working his magic with Tavares.
The biggest questions come on defence. The group that will hit the ice Thursday has not played together in weeks, it seems. Trade-deadline acquisition Jake Muzzin will have to shake off the rust of missing the last three games of the regular season with an illness. Jake Gardiner has played just two games since missing five weeks with back spasms. Travis Dermott is another recent returnee after a lengthy injury absence (shoulder).
Finally, Andersen cannot repeat his in-and-out performance in the Bruins series last spring, a symptom of too much work in the regular season. The Leafs hoped they remedied that last fall by giving the backup job to Garret Sparks with the expectation he could play at least 25 games. That worked so well that Sparks was essentially told last week to go stand in the broom closet and his job was handed to Michael Hutchinson.
Funny thing about this team – the Leafs added Tavares and Muzzin this season and Morgan Rielly took a huge step forward in becoming one of the NHL’s best defencemen. The team is definitely better on paper than last year, although it still could not challenge the Bruins for second place in the Atlantic Division.
But a win over them in the playoffs will change a lot of minds.