Visa change to boost number of Mexicans visiting Canada

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The number of Mexican visitors to Canada is expected to jump sharply after a cumbersome visa requirement disappears later this year.

As part of the "Three Amigos" summit among North American leaders in Ottawa in late June, Canada agreed to drop the rule that says Mexicans travelling to Canada must obtain a visa in advance. The barrier was put in place in 2009 by the previous Harper government to stem a rise in asylum claims from Mexicans arriving in Canada, but the Liberals vowed to kill it.

The new visa requirement prompted a plunge in the number of Mexican tourists coming to Canada. In 2008, about 270,000 Mexicans came here – making Mexico the sixth-largest source of travellers to Canada that year – but by 2010 the number was cut in half to 124,000.

The volume of Mexican travellers has increased in recent years as the visa process was streamlined somewhat, but it has never returned to the pre-visa levels. In 2015, about 205,000 Mexicans came to Canada for an overnight visit.

That's about to change, thanks to the replacement of the visa with a simple electronic travel authorization process as of Dec. 1. At Canada Day celebrations in Mexico, Canadian Ambassador Pierre Alarie predicted that about 25,000 more Mexicans will travel to Canada in 2017. Within three years the numbers will have increased by as much as 50,000, he said.

The Tourism Industry Association of Canada (TIAC) has even more optimistic projections, suggesting that the rule change could attract as many as 82,000 more Mexican visitors over the short term. Those new visitors will spend as much as $122-million annually, TIAC said.

The elimination of the visa requirement "will add to the growth for sure," said travel and tourism expert Greg Hermus, associate director of the Conference Board of Canada. He noted that prior to the imposition of the visa rules, travel from Mexico had one of the strongest growth rates of any country. But the visa had a "huge impact" on pleasure travel and the numbers dropped like a stone, he said.

Going forward, we're likely to see as much as 10-per-cent average annual growth in Mexican tourism each year over the next several years, Mr. Hermus said.

One reason for the increased interest is the growing Mexican middle class, which has the disposable income to spend on travel. There is also significant air capacity already in place between Canada and Mexico – partly because so many Canadians travel south for vacations.

Canadian and Mexican airlines have non-stop flights from Mexico City to Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, in addition to flights to resort areas.

TIAC vice-president Rob Taylor said "there is a natural affinity between the two countries," partly because of business ties. And surprisingly, "many Mexicans are avid skiers," he said, and that tends to spread out northbound travel throughout the seasons.

Indeed, at the Whistler Blackcomb ski resort in British Columbia, Mexico had been an important and growing source of well-heeled customers – along with their extended families – up until the visa was put in place, said chief executive officer David Brownlie. But after 2009, "visits just dropped in half," he said. "[The visa] was complicated, it was painstaking … and they were just mad [about it]," so Mexicans chose other destinations.

Now, with the visa being removed, new direct flights between Mexico City and Vancouver in place, and heightened tension between the United States and Mexico due to Donald Trump's presidential candidacy, there is potential for a dramatic gain in Mexican skiers who might otherwise go to Colorado, Mr. Brownlie said.

Travel from Mexico to Canada has been climbing back toward its pre-visa levels since a streamlined visa application process was put in place a couple of years ago, but now there will likely be a bigger surge that will take it to new records.

"Everybody has been holding their breath since the Liberal platform came out," TIAC's Mr. Taylor said. "People have money set aside [to promote Canadian destinations]. I think ad agencies in Mexico should be happy because there should be a pretty good influx of Canadian dollars, from an advertising perspective, in the next little while to try to generate demand."

Destination Canada, the Crown agency responsible for marketing Canadian travel outside the country, is planning to ramp up its spending in Mexico in 2017, president David Goldstein said. The organization got increased funding in the last federal budget, and some of that will be used to boost marketing in Mexico. A lot of Canada's travel marketing in that country will be done in conjunction with travel agencies and tour companies that sell Canadian travel to Mexicans, he added.

The timing of the visa's removal is helpful, Mr. Goldstein said, because "December is when people are starting to think about their vacations for 2017." At some point, Mexico has the potential to become one of the top five sources of Canada-bound tourists, he said. That group now includes the United States, Britain, China, Germany and France.

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Pound's plunge could cut trips to Canada

The plunge in the pound prompted by the Brexit vote could put a damper on British travel to Canada – our second-largest source of inbound tourists after the United States.

The depressed pound means travel to Canada will be more expensive for British citizens, and the political turmoil has also dented the economic confidence of Britons, said travel and tourism expert Greg Hermus, associate director of the Conference Board of Canada. Weaker consumer confidence usually cuts into travel, he said, because people "kind of hunker down and stay close to home." It could even trim the numbers of British travellers visiting Canada for the 150th anniversary of Confederation next year, he said.

In the short term, however, bookings are already paid for, so there should be little impact this summer, said David Goldstein, president of Destination Canada, the Crown agency responsible for marketing Canada as a tourist destination. He thinks the pound may stabilize before there is any substantial impact. "We think that things will calm down in the market, hopefully in time for people making decisions for the 2017 cycle."

At the Whistler Blackcomb ski resort in British Columbia, Britain is a big and important source of visitors, said chief executive officer David Brownlie. Any kind of economic uncertainty or loss of consumer confidence can be a big factor in people's decisions, especially if they are thinking of an expensive two-week ski vacation, so "there could be a bit of a loss of business," he said. However, "once this thing settles out, I think it will continue to be a strong source of business for us," he added, noting that Canada still has a currency advantage relative to the U.S. dollar.