Gwyn Morgan is the retired founding CEO of EnCana Corp.
Given the pain being experienced by workers in the forest products and fishing industries, it's not surprising that a taxpayer bailout of much more highly paid auto workers is unpopular here on Vancouver Island.
In my March 2 column, I stated that it makes more sense to provide workers with transitional support and training for other jobs than to waste money on a futile attempt to bail out doomed auto companies. This stimulated a great question from one of my Saturday-morning running pals as we raced along the island's wilderness trails: "Okay, so what are those other jobs?"
Well, as the saying goes, "In theory, practice and theory should be the same thing, but in practice, they're not." The practice part of this theory doesn't have a short or easy answer.
In the midst of the painful layoffs in sunset businesses, the most important thing to remember is that the future lies in the success of businesses upon which the sun is rising. In Canada, and throughout the industrialized world, more than half of today's high-growth potential companies did not exist only a decade ago.
Similarly in the public sector, those services with a growing need will largely be the same as before the downturn. An aging population means that health care and seniors' services are big growth areas. Even in this downturn, hospitals and nursing homes have a long unfilled recruitment list for doctors, nurses, diagnostic technologists, therapists and dieticians.
On the other hand, lower birth rates mean fewer children entering school, so fewer teaching jobs. Low population growth also reduces demand for autos and consumer products. Rapidly changing, Internet-driven patterns of communication and information acquisition mean lower demand for paper and newsprint, impacting forest products companies as well as magazines and newspapers. Low population growth, and an overhang of housing stock, will continue to slow lumber demand and home construction.
Exports from Canada's rich resource endowment underpins employment in many parts of the country. Prior to the financial crisis, unprecedented economic growth in Asian workshop countries led to skyrocketing demand, and prices, for energy and raw materials. While it's unlikely that exports of consumer goods to the West will return to previous levels, the 2½ billion people in China and India represent an enormous internal market who are not going to give up their dreams.
Higher living standards require higher energy consumption, raising prices once again for production from Alberta's oil sands and Newfoundland's offshore oil fields. Rising energy prices will also revitalize development of British Columbia and Alberta's natural gas resources. Burgeoning infrastructure projects will need increasing amounts of steel, nickel and copper, revitalizing employment in metal mines and mills from B.C. to Labrador.
In both Asia and the West, nuclear power will undergo a resurgence, and Saskatchewan holds the world's largest uranium reserves. Food shortages will again loom on the horizon and Saskatchewan also has one of the world's largest potash fertilizer resources.
In Ontario, the recovery will be driven by an educated and entrepreneurial population who will continue the process of transforming Canada's traditional economic heartland into a world-class, post-manufacturing economy. Quebec combines hydro-power energy riches and mineral resources with high-tech manufacturing and engineering services that are internationally respected.
Growth in these and other cornerstone industrial sectors has a large multiplier effect on job creation in the service sectors. In these and many other growth segments, Canada will need skilled trades - equipment operators, technicians, engineers, accountants, business graduates and supply-chain managers, to name only a few.
In the midst of so much pain and gloom, it's hard to comprehend that the longer-term challenge for employers will be to find workers with the right education and skills. As retirements remove people from the work force and the economy recovers, this will be an increasing challenge. Focusing our vocational, trade and technical schools and our colleges and universities on delivering graduates with the knowledge needed for the jobs available is paramount if we are to preserve the privileged living standards Canadians have so long enjoyed.
Weeding out government programs that are not worthwhile and finding ways to deliver existing programs more efficiently would also increase the proportion of workers available for more productive private-sector employment.
Less than a year ago, parts of Canada were already experiencing worker shortages. Admittedly, it's hard to relate to the prospect of a return to that situation if you've just lost your job or your business has failed. But in the darkest of days, hope for a better future is what drives human beings forward. No one can say for certain where or when a new skill set will land you a job, but one thing is certain: Rather than waiting for a termination notice, it's much better to pro-actively acquire knowledge needed by sectors where the outlook is positive.
My advice to government: Forget the corporate bailouts. Put the money into education for the jobs that will be in demand when this financial mess is over.
My advice to those who have either lost their job, or are worried about their future: Don't waste any time in helpless gloom. The best place to be during this recession may well be back in the classroom. Get outside advice and do your own research to determine the knowledge and skills that could open up a new future, and then seize the opportunity.
Now.