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In many people's minds, BlackBerry's success or failure is linked to its handsets' signature miniature keyboard. It's the first thing fans bring up when singing the smartphone maker's praises. That's why BlackBerry Ltd. CEO Thorsten Heins' warning Tuesday that the company expects operating losses in the next quarter is a worrying development. The second quarter (BlackBerry's fiscal year is different from the calendar fiscal year) will deliver the verdict on U.S. sales numbers for the Q10, the BB10 model with a keyboard, and present a clear picture of just what the keyboard is worth to the company. Those who predicted that the June 21 U.S. launch of the Q10 would unleash a tsunami of pent-up demand may soon wish they had a time machine, not just a backspace key.
By one measure, at least, the keyboard is dying. According to an NPD Group study, handsets with keyboards made up 7 per cent of sales in the first quarter of 2013. That's down from 21 per cent in the first quarter of 2012, and 61 per cent in the first quarter of 2010.
Another gauge of how much affection users have for their QWERTY buttons may be the sales of Bluetooth keyboards for touchscreen devices. Again, by that measure, physical keyboards seem unloved. A March, 2013 report from accessory-maker Logitech projected that keyboards in fiscal 2014 would account for a mere 20 per cent of the $1.4-billion iPad accessories market, and a similar share of the $513-million Android tablet accessory market.
It's possible that these trends will reverse. Perhaps more users will want physical keyboards as they start using tablets for work purposes. But for now at least it seems that most mobile device users are making the shift to virtual keyboards.
BlackBerry defenders argue that, given just how poorly regarded the last generation of BlackBerry devices were, lacklustre sales of the Z10 touchscreen model are not a fair gauge of whether existing users plan to stay with the brand. Fair enough, but BlackBerry subscriber numbers have been declining since the second quarter of 2012, sinking from 80 million to the current level of 72 million, suggesting that even some keyboard die-hards opted to give up their old phones rather than wait for BB10 to arrive.
The market has lately delivered a sternly worded message to handset makers: if you thought you could rely on a single competitive advantage, think again. People still value Apple's seamless user experience and the Samsung Galaxy's screen size, of course, but neither firm's latest models shipped as many units as analysts expected. BlackBerry may yet experience a bump from its Q10 sales, but like its rivals, it still has a long, tough slog ahead to hang onto a significant share of the increasingly cutthroat smartphone business.
Editor's note: A previous version of this story incorrectly referred to BlackBerry's next quarter as the third quarter. We regret the error.
Dave Morris is a contributor to ROB Insight, the business commentary service available to Globe Unlimited subscribers. Click here for more of his Insights, and follow Dave on Twitter at @morrisdave .