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Who wants to be an apprentice? Not enough young people, apparently. The federal government is reportedly considering adopting the proposals of an industry group for polytechnics and colleges in the upcoming budget, through which it hopes to encourage more people to train as plumbers, framers, pipe-fitters and so on.
Ottawa should think twice before forging ahead. With unemployment still stubbornly high, the supposed gap in the labour market for the skilled trades may seem like a candidate for intervention. But Polytechnics Canada's proposals seem self-serving and needlessly bureaucratic. A better idea would be to let the market sort out the problem.
Popular opinion to the contrary, there is little evidence of a crying need for more tradespeople. Sure, everyone's read the reports arguing that plumbers, for example, are retiring en masse and there aren't enough of them left to take on apprentices. But a widely-cited 2007 Statistics Canada study says that the average age of people employed in the trades was 40 in 2007. That's almost two years younger than for other types of jobs.
A reliable indication of shortages in the trades in general would be spiking wages, but that hasn't been the case. According to the Institute for Competitiveness and Prosperity, an Ontario think tank, growth in compensation in the trades has actually been slower than that in other industries.
As a whole, the labour market appears to be well balanced. In 2007, midway through an enormous construction boom, workers in the trades were making on average of only 6 per cent more than those in non-trades occupations.
Polytechnics Canada's proposals, such as requiring tenders for government contracts to include provisions requiring apprenticeships, and adding funding for pre-apprenticeship programs at colleges and polytechnics, would be a boon to the education industry. It's not clear, however, that the proposals would actually address any shortage of apprentices better than letting higher wages act as a natural magnet for potential tradespeople. If house framers are making $100,000 a year, the industry will undoubtedly attract at least a few of those history majors now employed as baristas; no government intervention is needed.
Canada's labour market could certainly use a shot in the arm, but in the absence of much evidence that such tradespeople are in high demand, a federally mandated flood of apprentices isn't going to help – even if it keeps a few more college instructors employed.
Dave Morris is a contributor to ROB Insight, the business commentary service available to Globe Unlimited subscribers. Click here for more of his Insights, and follow Dave on Twitter at @morrisdave.