Thank goodness for the housing sector. Everything else economic may be crumbling, but building and buying homes goes on.
Wednesday's data release was from the construction side of things. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. housing starts hit a level of 1.574 million (seasonally adjusted at annual rates) in September. That's a 1.7 per cent increase over August, and better than market expectations of a 1.8 per cent decline. Not only that, but the August figure was revised up by 21,000 from initial estimates.
All year, analysts have been amazed by the level of U.S. home sales. Employment, after all, has been dipping. Confidence, even before Sept. 11, was getting shaky. And still consumers kept buying, which prompted builders to build.
Then again, interest rates were dropping. So much so that mortgage rates in the United States are now at the lowest levels since the late 1960s. So maybe Wednesday's numbers should not be such a surprise.
The bond markets hate good-news surprises.
Both U.S. Treasuries and Government of Canada bonds saw yields go up and prices go down on the release. Fixed-income investments are always more attractive when rates decline. And positive economic signals make it less likely that that will happen.
But the details of the report could cheer bond-holders up.
U.S. building permits, which are a good predictor of housing starts, slumped by 3 per cent in September. With the decline, they ended up at the slowest pace since December of 1997. So the September rise in starts could be the last burst of activity for a while.
In the meantime the markets will be watching other things. Mr. Greenspan will tell a joint session of Congress what he really thinks. And on this side of the border, a gaggle of private-sector economists will share their views with Finance Minister Paul Martin.
Stay tuned.
Linda Nazareth is ROBTv's resident economist.