The processing facility at the Suncor tar sands operations near Fort McMurray, Alberta, is seen in an undated file photo taken September 17, 2014. In the oil and gas sector, adjusted profits are down a whopping 76 per cent compared with the same period in 2013.TODD KOROL/Reuters
More than halfway through earnings season, dismal fourth-quarter results from the resource sector have been a huge anchor on profit growth for corporate Canada.
The aggregate earnings of companies in the S&P/TSX Composite index that have so far reported have contracted by 10 per cent on an annual basis, according to data from Bloomberg.
For energy companies, the fourth quarter was supposed to be the calm before the storm. Heading into the reporting period, adjusted profits were expected to rise by 10 per cent before hitting the skids in the first quarter of 2015 as the extended downturn in crude prices was fully reflected in their results.
Thus far, that projection appears to be wildly optimistic. In the oil and gas sector, adjusted profits are down a whopping 76 per cent compared with the same period in 2013. Two-thirds of exploration and production companies, however, have yet to release their results.
The large integrated firms, Suncor Energy Inc., Cenovus Energy Inc., and Husky Energy Inc., saw fourth-quarter adjusted profits nearly cut in half relative to the same period in 2013. Analysts' full-year profit estimates for the sector will likely be reduced, barring an unexpected recovery in the price of oil.
However, outside of commodity-linked companies, earnings growth has generally surprised to the upside, with a handful of standout performances.
Magna Inc. posted a terrific trifecta – an earnings beat, the announcement of a two-for-one stock split and a 16-per-cent boost to its quarterly dividend – that sent shares soaring to all-time highs on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. soared 15 per cent on Feb. 23, the day the firm reported fourth-quarter profits and revenues that came in above the consensus estimates.
The major driver of the Canadian pharma giant's gains, however, was the announcement of an agreement to buy gastrointestinal drug specialist Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. for $10.1-billion in cash.
Even some firms with exposure to the oil patch were able to impress. TransCanada Corp., for instance, raised its dividend by 8 per cent and reported earnings that exceeded analysts' expectations.
Most important, the big Canadian banks have managed to defy their detractors – at least for one quarter. The collapse in the price of oil and potential end to the Canadian consumer credit cycle had brought about renewed skepticism on the earnings prospects for the group, and spurred reports that the second coming of the "Great White Short" – short selling Canadian banks – was in the offing.
While bank executives warned about the forward outlook, earnings remained resilient. Four of the Big Six banks recorded adjusted profits above analysts' estimates, with Bank of Montreal the lone exception and the Bank of Nova Scotia set to report this week. The Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, and Toronto-Dominion Bank all hiked their quarterly payouts in tandem with the release of better-than-expected results.
The S&P/TSX composite is up more than 3 per cent since earnings season commenced in late January. All sectors except the most defensive and interest-rate sensitive – telecoms and utilities – have advanced over this period.
The long, drawn-out nature of Canadian earnings season means that there is still plenty to look forward to, though about 80 per cent of the market capitalization of the S&P/TSX composite have published their results.
On Thursday, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. are scheduled to release earnings, followed by Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. and Tourmaline Oil Corp. around the middle of the month.
BlackBerry Ltd. posts its results near the end of March, but earnings reports will continue to trickle out until the following month is over.