Before his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would be "the greatest jobs producer that God ever created."
Since then, the U.S. economy has churned out millions of jobs and the unemployment rate has grinded lower – facts which Mr. Trump has not hesitated to trumpet over Twitter.
And yet, Mr. Trump will need a miracle to claim the "greatest jobs producer" title.
When his prediction was first made, we took a look at job creation under 12 full presidencies for which monthly payroll data are available, spanning from Harry Truman to Barack Obama.
Now, with 12 months of jobs data from his presidency, here is where Mr. Trump ranks thus far:
Change in employment by presidency
5%
Carter
+4.84%
4
Johnson
+3.43%
3
2
Trump
+1.45%
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Obama
-3.17%
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
0
2
4
6
8
10
Months in office
Note: Data are total non-farm payroll employment,
seasonally adjusted.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ST. LOUIS FED
Change in employment by presidency
5%
Carter
+4.84%
4
Johnson
+3.43%
3
2
Trump
+1.45%
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Obama
-3.17%
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
0
2
4
6
8
10
Months in office
Note: Data are total non-farm payroll employment, seasonally
adjusted.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ST. LOUIS FED
Change in employment by presidency
5%
Carter
+4.84%
4
Johnson
+3.43%
3
2
Trump
+1.45%
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Obama
-3.17%
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
0
2
4
6
8
10
Months in office
Note: Data are total non-farm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted.
THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: ST. LOUIS FED
One year in, Mr. Trump is already way behind the man he's chasing, Lyndon Johnson.
Under Mr. Johnson, total non-farm payroll employment surged 21.3 per cent, the best percentage gain for a postwar president, and a tad higher than those seen under Mr. Truman and Bill Clinton.
The odds are certainly stacked against Mr. Trump. Roughly 31 million more Americans would need to be employed at the end of his presidency to surpass Mr. Johnson. That amounts to an average annual gain of 3.88 million – assuming Mr. Trump occupies the White House for eight years. During his first year, employment increased by 2.1 million.
Timing is a major factor, too. Mr. Trump took office at a time of relative strength for the U.S. economy, and the good times have certainly rolled on. Subsequently, the labour market has tightened, and the jobless rate, at 4.1 per cent, is around what many consider "full employment."
Simply put, timing is probably not on Mr. Trump's side. The U.S. expansion is getting long in the tooth, and in 2017, jobs were created at the slowest annual rate since 2009.
Another way for Mr. Trump to claim the title –
and really, it's his best hope – is to generate the most jobs in overall terms. In this sense, he enjoys an advantage, presiding over a larger population (and labour force) than his predecessors.
But even in this scenario, it's not looking good. The largest overall gain in employment came under Mr. Clinton; nearly 23 million more people were working at the end of his presidency than the beginning. (Again, timing was a big factor: Mr. Clinton's tenure was neatly sandwiched between two recessions.) Mr. Trump is on pace for fewer than 18 million additional workers.
Of course, presidents aren't directly responsible for all that much hiring. Mr. Trump, however, takes a lot of credit for job gains. As such, it's worth keeping in mind that, strong as the U.S. job numbers may be, Mr. Trump is far from rarefied air.
Note: For each president, we used the employment figure for the month he assumed office as a base value to calculate change. For job creation over an entire term, it includes a president's final month in office, even if that month was partially served.