Amanda’s Vineyards is a family-operated business near Picton, Ont. with seven acres of vines.Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd./Supplied
Residents of Ontario’s Prince Edward County are accustomed to the influx of summer tourists who savour the area’s arts scene, vineyard tours and rolling sand dunes.
This year more than most, many are hoping that visitors will also spend time checking out local real estate.
While spring marks the high point of the annual sales cycle in most parts of the province, sales in Prince Edward County tend to ramp up in July and August, says Miranda Miller, real estate agent with Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd.
She has noticed an upturn in confidence amongst buyers in recent weeks, and sellers coming to market now are betting that increased summer traffic will also lift sales.
“We’re still quite a destination for folks,” says Ms. Miller. “It’s a good time to have a sign up.”
The week following the Canada Day holiday brought 43 new listings to market, says Ms. Miller.
The fresh supply comes on top of the tally at the end of June, when Prince Edward County, which sits about two hours east of Toronto on a peninsula jutting into Lake Ontario, had 309 active residential listings, including a few vacant lots and a couple of properties that have businesses on site.
Harvey Kalles agent Holly Found has listed the Amanda’s Vineyards property with an asking price of $1,497,500.Harvey Kalles Real Estate Ltd./Supplied
That’s a hefty amount of inventory for the area. During the early years of the COVID-19 pandemic, it typically had no more than 30 listings at any given time.
Prince Edward County saw 33 sales in June with an average price of $759,570 and an average of 58 days on market, according to the Central Lakes Association of Realtors. That compares with 31 sales in May with an average price of $802,759 and 42 days on market.
Many markets across Canada have seen inventory rise as buyers wait on the sidelines and anxious sellers list properties for sale. Many potential buyers are holding out for better affordability in the form of lower interest rates and a possible softening in prices, industry watchers say.
Last week, this dynamic prompted the Canadian Real Estate Association to cut its national forecast to a 6.1 per cent increase in sales in 2024 compared with 2023. CREA had previously been predicting a 10.5 per cent gain.
The average price will edge up 2.5 per cent this year compared with last, says the association, which had previously forecast a 4.9 per cent rise.
Olivia Cross, North America economist for Capital Economics, believes Canada’s housing market is turning a corner after a slow start to the year. After four months of declines, sales rose by 3.7 per cent in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis.
In a note to clients, Ms. Cross said she expects further interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada this year to provide more of a boost to home sales.
Tammy Noyes, real estate agent with Century 21 Lanthorn Real Estate, did notice a lift in Prince Edward County after the central bank cut its benchmark rate to 4.75 per cent from 5 per cent in June.
In the largest town of Picton, for example, buyers can purchase small, detached houses starting around the $500,000 mark.
“Right after the rate cut, I definitely saw an increase in showings on those listings.”
Above the $1-million mark, mortgages are much harder to get, she adds.
Buyers have more power to negotiate these days, notes Ms. Noyes, and it’s common to submit an offer conditional on a home inspection or financing, she adds.
Sales have fallen about 50 per cent from the hectic days of the COVID-19 pandemic, she says.
With fewer sales, it’s difficult to accurately set an asking price.
“You don’t have the data you once had with fewer sales,” she says.
During the pandemic, the mania for Prince Edward County reached an unprecedented level as urbanites fled the city, bidding wars erupted and “fear of missing out” pushed prices to a new high-water mark.
Record-low interest rates in 2020 and 2021 helped to fuel the surge in activity.
When interest rates and inflation started climbing, properties became harder to carry. Furthermore, some enthusiastic buyers have found out that country or small-town living isn’t as appealing as they thought it would be – especially in the winter, when many businesses and diversions shut down.
Many of those factors have combined to bring more sellers to the market in the past couple of years.
Ms. Miller says prices have dipped since the average in Prince Edward County hit more than $1-million at the peak during the pandemic.
A major shift in 2024 is that an increasing number of sellers have become resigned to the fact that those record prices are not returning soon.
She points to a Victorian-era farmhouse with 3.7 acres of land and a pebble beach listed last summer with an asking price of $1.579-million. The waterfront property sat through the fall until the owners took it off the market.
It came back in the spring with an asking price below $1-million and sold within a couple of weeks, she says.
“That was what the market wanted to pay for it.”
Homeowners often wanted to start with a lofty asking price in the past, but more people today accept that they need to be priced in line with the market.
“We don’t have to fight tooth and nail,” she says of those conversations. “People understand you have to start competitively – otherwise you end up sitting or chasing the market down.”
Ms. Miller notes that Prince Edward County has a diverse range of properties, from newly-built developments in Picton to cottages and farms. A cider-making operation recently came up for sale, along with a distillery.
“You can still find a winery here, if that’s what you’re after,” says Ms. Miller.
Amanda’s Vineyards is a family-operated business near Picton, Ont. with seven acres of vines. The 25-acre property includes a white three-bedroom farmhouse that currently serves as a short-term rental but could be a family home, says Ms. Miller.
Harvey Kalles agent Holly Found has listed the property with an asking price of $1,497,500.
Ms. Miller says some small-business operators and artisans have pulled up stakes, but many investors, entrepreneurs and artists are arriving to breathe new life into old venues.
“An old dairy farm I used to go to as a kid is an event space and distillery,” she says, adding that weddings and other celebrations take place in the antique barn.
“There’s still that creative energy,” she says. “It still really feels like it’s fresh.”