The minority Liberals are now on their own in Parliament. Or, at least, they will be one day. The real question is when.
The death of the Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement means the gaming of Parliament begins next week. Justin Trudeau’s government will be playing for survival.
The parliamentary calendar gives opposition parties many opportunities to put forward non-confidence motions in coming months – and the trick for the Liberals is to defuse, delay and, in the end, try to pick the day of their own defeat.
Chances are that will come in the spring. In the meantime, expect gamesmanship.
The Liberals have tools: They could prorogue Parliament, schedule the dates of votes, or dare opposition parties to trigger an election campaign over the holidays. But that can only succeed for so long.
On Tuesday, both NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet told reporters they will vote on a case-by-case basis, not on election timing. But that’s political posturing.
Just look at Mr. Blanchet’s demands. His first priority, he said, is an increase in Old Age Security for seniors aged 65 to 74 – something the Liberals might accept. But he has other demands, such as giving Quebec expanded powers over immigration, that are non-starters for Mr. Trudeau.
Mr. Blanchet is putting forward a workable demand now but saving deal-breakers for later – a sign that the Bloc isn’t rushing to trigger an election yet.
The NDP has its own timing concerns. Mr. Singh’s move to withdraw from the deal with the Liberals is aimed at distancing his party from Mr. Trudeau, and giving an appearance of strength. That narrative doesn’t allow the NDP to keep supporting the Liberals for another year.
But the party also doesn’t want to trigger an election right away. The pharmacare bill at the centre of the Liberal-NDP deal hasn’t passed the Senate, and it will take talks with provinces to deliver the promised public coverage of contraceptives and diabetes drugs. New Democrats would look ridiculous if they propped up Mr. Trudeau for 2½ years but walked away before that key piece could be done. That means New Democrats probably won’t want to trigger an election till the new year.
But in the meantime, the Conservatives will presumably try to embarrass them by moving non-confidence motions – and ridiculing them if they support the Liberals.
For the Liberal government, the goal is to survive as long as possible, or at least to fall at the optimal time.
Passing money bills requires confidence votes, and opposition parties are entitled to allotted days when they could move non-confidence motions – seven such days before Dec. 10, another seven before March 26, and another eight before June 23.
The government could schedule all the allotted days for the fall sitting quickly – hoping that the NDP or the Bloc aren’t ready to go to an election. But that’s a high-risk dare to the opposition to defeat them.
Alternatively, the Liberals could try full-on delay, proroguing Parliament and bringing the Commons back after Thanksgiving. That would also disrupt a number of committee hearings that are embarrassing the government. And proroguing Parliament would allow Mr. Trudeau to deliver a Throne Speech outlining a new agenda.
Then the government could schedule all seven of the fall sitting’s allotted days near the Dec. 10 deadline – so the government’s defeat would trigger an election campaign over the Christmas holidays.
The problem with that strategy is that prorogation is traditionally followed by a confidence vote on the Throne Speech, and although that’s not obligatory, skipping it would send an embarrassing signal that the government is on the run.
In any event, it’s unlikely that tactical manoeuvres will carry the Liberals beyond March – when the opposition will have seven allotted days to put forward confidence motions. By that point, the Bloc and NDP will be under political pressure to bring Mr. Trudeau’s government down.
In that case, the best the Liberals can hope for is to manage their own defeat. Former prime minister Stephen Harper’s government did that in 2011, arranging the parliamentary schedule so it knew in advance the date the election campaign would start.
Mr. Trudeau’s best hope is probably to make it to a spring budget, one the Liberal government will presumably pack with goodies, and to fall on the budget vote – using that as a springboard for their election campaign.