Prime Minister Justin Trudeau holds a press conference at the Francophonie Summit in Paris, France on Oct. 5.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
There’s a reason why Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign puts out social-media ads with middle-aged men saying they will vote for her. And why Justin Trudeau keeps appearing on hour-long podcasts. It has to do with getting permission to change your mind.
It seems to be working a little for the U.S. Vice President. For Canada’s Prime Minister, not so much.
Both are trying to build what U.S. Democratic campaign strategists call permission structures. It’s basically about building conditions that make it possible for people to change their minds. The idea is that some people won’t be ready to accept your message unless you’ve got their permission first.
That’s one reason Ms. Harris chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. Sometimes, people won’t consider a candidate for cultural or emotional reasons, including the feeling that people like them just don’t vote that way. Mr. Walz exudes a middle-American white dad persona that – backed by ads – is aimed at making white men more willing to consider voting for Ms. Harris.
Here in Canada, Mr. Trudeau is finding it hard to get permission. There’s a pretty obvious reason why. But the PM doesn’t seem to see it.
Like Ms. Harris, Mr. Trudeau is trying various ways to unlock the barriers voters have built up. His advisers hope to displace the sour image of him that has grown in voters’ minds.
Over the summer, he turned up unannounced at events such as Winnipeg’s Filipino Folkorama so a cheerful Justin Trudeau could be seen interacting with happy Canadians, without the intrusive press. A return to sunnier ways.
The Prime Minister also did a number of long appearances on podcasts, in the hope that the conversational Mr. Trudeau will earn a second look from people who now feel the ick for the guy they’ve seen on TV.
If they do, the thinking goes, they might actually listen to him talking about some of the Liberal government’s accomplishments, such as the child-care program, and warnings about what Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre would do in power.
But Mr. Trudeau is still up against a locked door.
The Prime Minister seems strangely unaware of public sentiment. When he appeared on Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith’s Uncommons podcast last week, he talked about people’s questions about him running for re-election as if was it a question of whether he still has the ability to fight. In reality, the question the public has is whether he is disconnected from their struggles.
Mr. Trudeau keeps talking about pushing forward. Continuing. On Mr. Erskine-Smith’s podcast, he argued Canadians face the same kind of choice they did in 2015, “when there were a lot of people telling us we were wrong.” He talked about doubling down, as if the notion was flowing from his pores. Straight ahead.
The problem with that is that Canadians are dissatisfied.
An online poll of 2,248 Canadians conducted in March by Innovative Research Group found 41 per cent feel they are worse off than in 2015, and only 25 per cent feel better off. The market research firm’s president, Greg Lyle, said that, apart from seniors, the sentiment is widespread, and the federal government gets a lot of the blame.
When Mr. Trudeau defends the government’s economic record, it only makes people feel more strongly he is disconnected from their reality, Mr. Lyle said.
That’s a basic clash: Mr. Trudeau keeps showing voters an arrow straight ahead. They don’t want more of the same.
Mr. Lyle thinks the Prime Minister could have acknowledged the disconnect by admitting some mistakes to the public, acknowledging they should have acted sooner to deal with their economic struggles – but are on top of it now. That doesn’t require disavowing all Liberal policies, just accepting a measure of fault.
That would at least be more in tune with the experience of all those dissatisfied people. Voters who heard it might be willing to accept the notion that the Liberals are now on the case – and possibly the party’s argument that it has a better answer for the future than the Conservatives.
But Mr. Lyle thinks it’s too late for that now.
At any rate, Mr. Trudeau doesn’t exhibit any inclination to do that kind of thing. He doesn’t issue mea culpas, or accept blame. He says he understand Canadians’ frustrations, but they expect him to accept some measure of responsibility for them.
That’s the act of humility he needed to get voters to give permission. Mr. Trudeau doesn’t seem to hear that – or he just can’t do it.