Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier of Ontario Doug Ford arrive for an announcement at the Goodyear plant in Napanee, Ont., on Aug. 12.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
The commentariat is obsessed with the federal Liberal loss last week in the once-safe Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun. Few, in contrast, took note of last week’s by-election in the Ontario provincial riding of Bay of Quinte, won by Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives.
Why did Mr. Ford’s PCs win their by-election while Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lost theirs? One reason might be that the Premier obsesses over the needs of suburban, middle-class, car-commuting voters, while Mr. Trudeau has other priorities.
As you all know, Ontario’s plethora of suburban ridings tend to swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives, and tend to vote as a block. Whoever wins that block ends up governing, both federally and at Queen’s Park.
As you also know, Ontario voters like to install one political party in government federally, and the other provincially. Pierre Trudeau (Liberal) and Bill Davis (Progressive Conservative); Brian Mulroney (PC) and David Peterson (Lib); Jean Chrétien (Lib) and Mike Harris (PC); Stephen Harper (Conservative) and Dalton McGuinty (Lib); Justin Trudeau (Lib) and Doug Ford (PC). It’s uncanny, really.
Bay of Quinte is an Eastern Ontario riding that contains both suburban and rural areas. The Conservatives took the riding away from the Liberals in the 2021 federal election, while the Progressive Conservatives have held it since the provincial election of 2018.
In Thursday’s by-election, the PCs held on to the riding with 39 per cent of the vote, while the Liberals took 33 per cent and the NDP 23 per cent.
Mr. Ford presents himself as a populist. In practice, the Progressive Conservatives have offered broadly centrist government with populist shading. But the shading is everything. It includes things such as permitting alcohol sales in corner stores and promoting the planned new Highway 413, which will run through the 905, the vast suburban region surrounding Toronto named after its area code. The highway appalls environmentalists and many local farmers but commuters want it.
And on Friday, the CBC reported that the Ford government was considering legislation that would ban municipalities from installing bike lanes if such lanes would restrict the flow of car traffic.
For progressives, prioritizing cars over bikes is up there with selling off prime farmland for housing and industry, which the Ford government also favours. Urban planners emphasize the need for increased public transit and for tolls to fight congestion, saying more and wider roads simply lead to more cars and congestion.
But the fact is, two-thirds of Canadians live in suburbs. Eighty per cent of the residents in Canada’s big cities live in suburbs. Eighty-three per cent of Canadian commuters drive to work. Toronto-area commuters have the longest travel times in North America. Reducing traffic jams is an important priority for voters in the Greater Toronto Area.
Mr. Ford caters to the wishes of his suburban, middle-class, car-commuting voting base, ignoring the experts. It has earned him two majority governments, and as Thursday’s by-election revealed, he remains popular.
Justin Trudeau has won the support of suburban Ontario voters in past elections. But his party now trails the Conservatives by a whopping 19 points in the province, according to the CBC poll tracker. It appears suburban Ontario is set to deliver Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre a majority government.
Why the switch in support among Ontario suburbanites? Most likely resentment of the carbon tax, of the impossibly high cost of housing, of recent inflation, of high interest rates and of runaway immigration, along with general weariness toward a government that has been in power for nine years.
The Liberals cite their new child care, dental care and pharmacare programs. But for many suburban, middle-class, car-commuting voters these aren’t top priorities. Their employer offers dental and prescription plans. They aren’t currently in need of subsidized daycare. They want stronger incomes, cheaper mortgages and a faster commute.
Justin Trudeau says his government has to do a better job of explaining its policies. More likely, suburban, middle-class, car-commuting Ontario voters fully grasp those policies and can’t wait to render their verdict.
Meanwhile, rumour has it that Mr. Ford is considering calling an election next spring, a full year ahead of schedule. The Premier may want to get another majority government locked in, before Ontario voters decide once again to switch things around.