There is no obvious reason to believe the NDP’s performance under Jagmeet Singh will improve in the next federal election – it might even do worse.Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press
Everybody is wondering whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will step down before the next federal election. They should be asking the same question of Jagmeet Singh. A pair of by-elections next month could reveal whether the time has come for the NDP Leader to depart.
Mr. Singh can take pride in knowing that, thanks to him, Canada has a new national dental care program and the beginnings of national pharmacare. He entered into a supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals after the last election on the condition the government implement those programs.
Not since the days of Pierre Trudeau and David Lewis in the 1970s has a Liberal government adopted so many New Democrat priorities.
Fundraising is also in decent shape. Since 2020, the party has been raising more than $6-million a year in non-election years under Mr. Singh – a considerable improvement over his first years as leader.
But the political arena is unforgiving. The Liberals are unpopular and Conservatives, rather than the NDP, have benefited, according to polls. Several NDP MPs have announced they will not run in the next election.
The NDP is in its traditional territory of just under 20-per-cent support in most polls. That’s hardly dismal. Remember, with the exception of Jack Layton’s breakthrough in 2011, the New Democrats have not cracked 20-per-cent support in an election since Ed Broadbent led the party in the 1980s.
Still, there is no obvious reason to believe the NDP’s performance under Mr. Singh will improve in the next federal election. It might even do worse. That’s why the two Sept. 16 by-elections are so important. They could serve as a leading indicator of the party’s future under his leadership.
One by-election is in the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, which David Lametti vacated earlier this year after he was bounced as justice minister. The riding should be safe for the Liberals – Mr. Lametti had a margin of about 10,000 votes in the last two elections – but both the Bloc Québécois and the NDP believe they have a shot. Mr. Singh has been in the riding repeatedly, supporting NDP candidate Craig Sauvé, a well-known city councillor.
If the Liberals lose LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, it would be as great a shock as their loss in the Toronto–St. Paul’s by-election in June. If the NDP were to be the dragon-slayer, that would burnish Mr. Singh’s image to no end.
On the other hand, the NDP Leader’s image could take a major hit if he loses the other by-election, in Winnipeg’s Elmwood–Transcona. The Blaikie family, father and son, have virtually owned the riding since the 1980s, with a couple of exceptions.
After Bill Blaikie retired as MP in 2008, the riding was held by Jim Maloway for the NDP. But Mr. Maloway was defeated by a Conservative in the 2011 election. Daniel Blaikie took back the seat in 2015 and held it until he decided to leave federal politics earlier this year to work for NDP Premier Wab Kinew.
If the Conservatives win the riding back in the by-election, that would suggest that Leader Pierre Poilievre’s effort to appeal to lower-income voters is resonating. NDP seats in Southwestern Ontario and Hamilton could also be a risk.
In sum: NDP victories in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona would have Mr. Singh riding high. Losses in both would suggest it’s time for him to leave. A loss in Montreal and a win in Winnipeg would suggest the party’s popularity is unlikely to change much any time soon.
Smaller parties usually do not profit from collaborations with larger parties. Bob Rae’s Ontario NDP agreed to support David Peterson’s Liberals after the 1985 election; two years later, voters rewarded the Liberals with a majority government. The BC Greens failed to profit from their 2017 confidence-and-supply agreement that brought the NDP to power. The NDP was returned with a majority in the next election.
Thus far, Mr. Singh’s NDP is being neither rewarded nor punished for propping up Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. But if the Conservatives do win a majority government, the NDP will lose any real influence in the House of Commons.
Mr. Singh should ask himself whether a new leader might energize the NDP base and win votes away from the Liberals. But he should wait until after the results of the Sept. 16 by-elections to decide.