Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during Question Period, in Ottawa, on Oct. 29.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
It’s obvious why Justin Trudeau doesn’t want Liberal MPs to hold a secret-ballot vote on his leadership: He might not win.
There can be no other reason at this point, when Mr. Trudeau is deep into a third term, facing defeat in the Commons and contested within his own Liberal Party.
That’s why Mr. Trudeau’s loyal cabinet ministers are pushing back against the idea of a vote. It’s a proposal that could actually force the Prime Minister to go.
Last Wednesday, two dozen Liberal MPs backed a letter asking him to step aside, but the Prime Minister strode out confidently and declared his party “strong and united.”
The truth is that it is neither of those things.
Mr. Trudeau reflected on the complaints of his backbench MPs for just one day before he told reporters he is staying to lead the Liberal Party through the next election – and then more backbenchers expressed doubts about his leadership.
Now there are MPs calling for a way to decide it definitively, so the mess doesn’t drag on – a secret-ballot vote.
It really would be simple, wouldn’t it? Mr. Trudeau’s loyalists insist that he has the support of the vast majority of Liberal MPs, but the backbenchers calling for him to step down don’t think that’s true. Why not decide things with a vote?
The ministers who spoke out against a secret ballot before Tuesday’s cabinet meeting offered half-baked arguments against it: It’s not the way we do things, there’s no need, MPs can express themselves in caucus meetings, and we’re pretty united, anyway. Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said the leadership issue is “largely settled.”
But that’s not so. The Liberal caucus is distinctly unsettled.
The MPs who want the Prime Minister to go have been poorly organized and hesitant about pressing the point, as if they’re too shy to step above their station and question the lord of the manor.
But it’s pretty clear that the group of MPs who signed the letter reflect a wider uneasiness among Liberal MPs. It’s just not clear precisely how deep that sentiment runs.
A secret-ballot vote could settle the question – but that’s why it is truly dangerous for Mr. Trudeau. It is the closest thing those dissidents can get to a mechanism that would force the leader out.
There’s no official way to do that. The Liberal Party dispensed with leadership-review votes for sitting prime ministers almost two decades ago. Liberal MPs didn’t sign on to Reform Act provisions that would have given them the legal power to eject their leader.
But nothing prevents Liberal MPs from expressing a view through a vote. If a majority of Liberal MPs were to cast ballots asking Mr. Trudeau to quit, it would amount to an undeniable demand from his own party.
Already, it is a remarkable thing that the dissenters on the Liberal backbench are calling for the question to be put to a vote. They apparently feel they work in a caucus full of MPs who think Mr. Trudeau should go but will only muster the courage to express it under the cover of secrecy.
But at this point, not holding a vote is itself a damaging commentary on Mr. Trudeau’s situation. It amounts to the Prime Minister dodging the verdict of his own MPs so that he can seek another mandate from the people of Canada. That’s an odd message to send to voters.
For the Liberals, not settling the issue means it keeps dragging on. Mr. Trudeau’s insistence last Thursday that he will stay on – one day after he promised caucus dissidents he would reflect on their message – did not calm dissent. The cabinet ministers who told reporters the rebellion is over are more likely to have riled it up.
The Liberals are so far behind in the polls that there will inevitably be more party figures calling for Mr. Trudeau to step aside to put the party first. Without a vote, the Prime Minister won’t have evidence that he leads a party that’s behind him.
Not settling the question means the Liberals will remain unsettled.