The Trudeau switch has been flicked for Liberals

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The mood of Liberals changed abruptly this week, like a switch being flicked.

There were already party apparatchiks and MPs who thought Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should go, of course. But before Monday’s by-election loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s, there were many who thought Mr. Trudeau was probably better than the alternatives.

He’s a good campaigner, they said. He wins seats in Quebec. Those waiting in the wings might lead the party to oblivion.

There seem to be a lot fewer people in that camp now. The mood is more that Mr. Trudeau’s leadership is the danger – and that it can’t be turned around.

Before this week, there was acceptance that it was one person’s decision – Mr. Trudeau’s – and the PM didn’t seem to be going anywhere. Now Liberals wonder if there will be a campaign to press him to go. Or if there is anyone who can influence him privately to go. Who does he listen to?

There are a few Liberals saying those things in public.

Former MP Wayne Easter told The Globe and Mail that he thinks Mr. Trudeau’s time is up, as did fellow Jean Chrétien-era cabinet minister John Manley. Jody Wilson-Raybould, Mr. Trudeau’s former justice minister who was pushed out/quit, added her plus one to that sentiment on X.

Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s successor, David Lametti, who was dropped from cabinet last year, said Mr. Trudeau has the right to decide but that he should think of his government’s legacy. Hint.

Current Liberal MPs and party stalwarts are going to ground in droves, declining to return calls from legions of reporters asking about Mr. Trudeau’s future. Some speak on background, or off the record, or way off the record.

For Justin Trudeau, everything new is the same old again

In public, Immigration Minister Marc Miller, a long-time friend of Mr. Trudeau, said the PM should stay, and that Liberals should get back to work. Some ministers offered thin endorsements, such as Industry Minister François-Phillipe Champagne’s assertion that “the leader is the leader.”

Let’s play that back. When asked about the Prime Minister’s leadership, a Liberal cabinet minister told the country: It is what it is.

The common line from cabinet ministers is that people are mad now and that the government must focus now on things that will help them.

“And then some months from now, we will be able to have a different conversation with Canadians,” Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said Wednesday.

But the shock of the by-election loss convinced some that Canadians don’t want to hear from Mr. Trudeau any more.

One Ontario Liberal said the by-election result showed that Mr. Trudeau is now in a similar situation to that of Premier Kathleen Wynne in 2018, when angry voters were not willing to listen to her no matter what she said. Her party was smashed in elections that June.

There are, figuratively speaking, a lot of Liberals standing around wondering how the Prime Minister might be pressed to go.

This Liberal Party, unlike that of a generation ago, doesn’t seem to know how to go about prodding a PM to quit. This iteration was built around Mr. Trudeau, and MPs will be reluctant to speak out against him. There isn’t an obvious successor, with an organization that could orchestrate a mass series of public calls for his resignation.

Former B.C. premier Christy Clark – who made some calls to Liberal this week to ask opinions about a federal leadership bid but told The Globe and Mail Thursday she’s not planning to run at the moment – called for Mr. Trudeau to be replaced.

But most on the standard list of potential leadership aspirants – such as Mr. Champagne, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly and former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney – aren’t likely to be so bold.

Mr. Trudeau has never been beholden to party pooh-bahs or inclined to lean on advice from Liberal elders. Unlike Brian Mulroney, who was pressed to quit as prime minister in 1993, Mr. Trudeau isn’t known for phoning around his network to take the pulse.

There’s a guessing game among some Liberals about who – perhaps Mr. Miller, Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc or chief of staff Katie Telford – he might heed if they advised him to go.

Those are the sorts of questions that are being asked now. The mood has flipped, even for some Liberals who will tell you a by-election isn’t much of a predictor of anything – but who see the loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s as confirmation that Mr. Trudeau won’t be able to turn things around.