NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh gives remarks during a press conference, in Toronto on Sept. 5.Christopher Katsarov/The Canadian Press
Jagmeet Singh’s advisers must have scripted a line for him to repeat every time a reporter asked his reason for pulling out of the NDP’s deal to support the Liberal government, and he repeated it doggedly. But it wasn’t really an explanation. It didn’t explain much of anything, and it wasn’t supposed to.
Mr. Singh didn’t point to any bargain that was broken or new development. He said the NDP got a lot done under the supply-and-confidence agreement, “but it became very clear to me that Justin Trudeau was too beholden to corporate interests to go further.” After two and a half years of an alliance, Mr. Singh had apparently discovered the Prime Minister’s true nature.
It didn’t matter. That was just something to say when the question was asked. The real reason was pure political strategy.
Mr. Singh had decided it was time to make his move. And his move is a long-shot attempt to re-create Jack Layton’s 2011 Orange Wave, to leapfrog the Liberals and their unpopular leader and position the NDP as the main party on the left.
That was the message he was trying to get across: that Mr. Trudeau can’t beat Pierre Poilievre, so the NDP is the only hope that progressives have to stop the Conservatives.
Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals, Mr. Singh said, are “too weak and too selfish” to stop the Conservatives. Nearly every one of his answers led to his assertion that the next election will be a choice between Conservative cuts and the NDP.
Sure, it’s not immediately obvious why the NDP, with 20-per-cent support in the latest Nanos Research poll, is in a better position to fight than a Liberal Party, with 26 per cent. But never mind that. Mr. Singh wants you to believe the Orange Wave can happen again.
Campbell Clark: The Liberals now face unpredictable jeopardy after NDP withdraws from alliance
The NDP was polling at about the same level in 2011 at the outset of the campaign in which the late Mr. Layton led the party to 103 seats and Official Opposition status. Once Mr. Layton pulled his party ahead of Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals, things started to snowball. The NDP displaced the Liberals as the main alternative to the Conservatives.
On Thursday, Mr. Singh was using a lot of phrases about hope that recalled Mr. Layton’s happy warrior ways. But then he has also cribbed themes from Kamala Harris and he even echoed former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair’s 2015 election campaign platform when he talked about “the Canada of Our Dreams.” Might as well throw it all at the wall.
It is true that, as in 2011, there is an unpopular Liberal leader. In fact, the NDP’s decision to withdraw from the supply-and-confidence agreement makes it even harder for the Liberals to replace Mr. Trudeau. And the NDP historically does best when the Liberal leader is unpopular.
That’s a key part of the gamble Mr. Singh is taking now. The critical goal isn’t beating back Mr. Poilievre’s Conservatives. It is taking advantage of the weakness of Mr. Trudeau’s Liberals.
Former New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton speaks to supporters during a campaign rally at the Estonian House in Toronto, on Sept. 28, 2008.MIKE CASSESE/X01329
To do that, the NDP had to break from them. When the NDP decided to withdraw, it wasn’t over some new development, or breakdown in co-operation. Wednesday’s announcement was made in a glossy video that, as Mr. Singh admitted Thursday, had been weeks in the making. This was an NDP campaign launch.
The problem for Mr. Singh is that it’s not so easy to conjure up an Orange Wave.
Mr. Layton struck a hopeful chord in the 2011 election campaign that contrasted with the dour personas of Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff. But he really took off when Quebeckers seemed to discover him for the first time even though it was his fourth general election campaign. There isn’t much reason to believe Mr. Singh can re-create that magic.
But things haven’t been going well, anyway. The NDP was slipping, not gaining, and the rise of the Conservatives threatens half the New Democrats’ 24 seats. Some of his MPs were grumbling about propping up Mr. Trudeau’s government for so long.
So Mr. Singh decided to gamble. It’s a long-shot bet on Liberal weakness – and getting Canadians to believe there can be another Orange Wave.