NDP leader Jagmeet Singh speaks to reporters on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Feb. 7.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Twice this week, Jagmeet Singh has drawn a line in the sand. Unfortunately, the line is invisible.
The NDP Leader trooped out on Monday to tell reporters the Liberals had better not miss the March 1 deadline for a deal on pharmacare legislation – or else. The Liberal-NDP deal would be no more. Or it would be broken. As Mr. Singh put it: “If they break the agreement, the agreement is broken.” Who can argue with that?
There were more dark warnings. On Wednesday, Mr. Singh told reporters if there is no agreement on pharmacare by March 1, there would be “consequences.”
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, he said, had better deliver what the NDP is demanding. What that is he wouldn’t really say.
He said the NDP wants the Liberals to table the pharmacare framework legislation promised in the 2022 supply-and-confidence agreement between the two parties – plus “additional measures.” But he wouldn’t say what the additional measures are.
That’s hardly the most believable ultimatum – telling the country you have made firm, bottom-line demands but you don’t want anyone to know what they are. It leaves lots of room to climb down if you don’t get what you asked for.
That reflects the dynamics of negotiations between a politically weak government and a politically weak fourth party that would both be wise to steer clear of the risk of an election for a good while.
If the NDP is really willing to die on this hill, it should be explaining to Canadians, loudly and in advance, what the hill is. And trying to convince people it is important. That is also what you do in politics if you want to take credit for the eventual outcome.
One part of the negotiations is over the framework legislation for a national pharmacare program, which was explicitly promised in the supply-and-confidence agreement.
That doesn’t mean adopting a pharmacare program now, just drafting the legislation. But the NDP wants a universal, single-payer program while the Liberals want a fill-in-the-gaps program, and both will want to say the legislation allows for their idea of pharmacare.
The other part – presumably the additional measures – is talks over a small list of widely used medications for conditions such as diabetes that would be covered in the near future, before a full pharmacare program is adopted.
That’s what would turn these pharmacare negotiations into a concrete thing that has real benefits for real people. You’d think Mr. Singh would be out in public right now talking about the need for some key medicines to be covered right away, if only so everyone would see pharmacare as an NDP idea if and when a deal is done – and so the Liberal government couldn’t take all the credit.
Instead, Mr. Singh used vague terms to accuse Mr. Trudeau of wanting to help corporations, while he wanted to help “people,” and offered bland warnings of “consequences” that the NDP wants to avoid.
Yes, the NDP wants to sound like it is turning the screws to get concessions from a weak Liberal government that wants to avoid an election. But it is also a weak opposition party that wants to avoid an election.
The NDP would be getting the worst of all worlds if the deal with the Liberals died now, when it is particularly weak politically, after two years of criticism for propping up the government.
Usually, the NDP gains support when the Liberals decline, but Mr. Trudeau’s unravelling in opinion polls has so far only benefited the Conservatives.
A number of New Democrat MPs in ridings where the Conservatives are the main competition would be in danger of losing their seats if an election were held now, notably in parts of B.C. It’s not at all clear the party would make gains elsewhere.
The deal with the Liberals is starting to bring in some of the policy concessions the NDP wanted, like a dental plan being rolled out now. But it hasn’t paid political dividends. Inside Mr. Singh’s own party, some complain Canadians don’t associate those new programs with the NDP.
Yet somehow, Mr. Singh decided to make this week all about making an unconvincing warning that he is willing to pick a fight – rather than about what he’s fighting for.