Canada may need to brace for influx of undocumented immigrants if Trump becomes president

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Polls show that Donald Trump has a better-than-even chance of winning the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5. This would pose grave challenges for Canada, in areas from trade to defence to immigration.

On the immigration front, the best solution might be to thin the border rather than thicken it. Here’s why:

Mr. Trump and his allies are threatening to use law enforcement officials, the National Guard and perhaps even the active military to round up an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants, corral them in detention camps, then deport them.

“Trump will unleash the vast arsenal of federal powers to implement the most spectacular migration crackdown,” Trump adviser Stephen Miller told The New York Times.

Though the first Trump administration’s attempts to deport undocumented immigrants caused fear and suffering, many of its efforts were thwarted by judicial rulings.

But the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, and others are hard at work formulating policies that a second Trump administration could implement to make mass deportations possible. That involves identifying loyalists who could be placed in key positions to fulfill those policies.

There would be broad public support. A CBS/YouGov poll released this month said 62 per cent of registered voters, including 53 per cent of Hispanics, would favour “a new national program to deport all undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. illegally.” (The survey, conducted between June 5 and 7, polled 1,615 registered voters and had a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.)

There are legal and practical constraints that would prevent a second Trump administration from carrying out such a plan. The American Civil Liberties Union and others would fight the proposed actions in court.

Even if the administration did secure approval from Trump-appointed judges, there are not enough judges, law enforcement officials and public servants to process and deport people in such large numbers.

“I don’t think that policy is realizable in any meaningful way,” said Audrey Macklin, a professor of law at the University of Toronto who specializes in immigration and human-rights law, in an interview.

Nonetheless, “if you can create enough uncertainty about what might happen, then that sparks the kind of fear and anxiety that could cause some people to take action to protect themselves and their families.”

This could result in undocumented immigrants leaving the U.S. for Canada.

The latest version of the Safe Third Country Agreement stipulates that an asylum seeker crossing into Canada from anywhere along the border must be returned to the U.S. But that won’t lessen the influx of asylum-seekers, Prof. Macklin believes; it only means they will put themselves at risk by clandestinely attempting dangerous water or land crossings.

And “it will be a job-stimulus package for smugglers,” she predicted.

Both Prof. Macklin and Jamie Chai Yun Liew, a professor of law at the University of Ottawa who is also an authority on immigration and refugee issues, believe the better solution would be to restore the opportunity for asylum-seekers to use official ports of entry and to initiate their request for asylum there, the Safe Third Country Agreement notwithstanding.

There is the risk that a large influx of migrants crossing from the U.S. and seeking asylum might undermine public confidence in Canada’s immigration system. But Prof. Liew points out that public confidence is influenced not by the number of people entering Canada but by whether they enter with proper supervision.

Many Canadians objected to the recent unexpected influx of international students or to the thousands of asylum-seekers using the irregular border crossing at Roxham Road. But there was broad public support for programs that admitted many thousands of Syrian and Ukrainian refugees.

“Cabinet has an obligation to review whether the Safe Third Country Agreement should continue under the conditions that would come about should President Trump be re-elected,” Prof. Liew told me.

In any case, Mr. Trump might welcome the departure of undocumented immigrants across the northern border and scrap the agreement himself.

In the event of a Trump victory, Canada should be ready to welcome as many new arrivals from the United States as possible, regardless of their immigration or citizenship status.

They would represent a silver lining to the very dark thundercloud of a second Trump presidency.