Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Joe Biden take part in a meeting on Parliament Hill, in Ottawa, on March 24, 2023.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
There are good reasons to believe that a Kamala Harris administration would be a friend to Canada, now that President Joe Biden has left the race and endorsed his Vice-President to succeed him.
But a Canadian government led by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, as polls suggest is likely, might well work better with a second Donald Trump administration.
You could argue that there are pluses and minuses to various scenarios, depending on what happens during their electoral cycle and ours. But so much more is at stake. Mr. Trump and his vice-presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, would challenge the fundamentals of what Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland calls “the rules-based international order.”
Whatever the Vice-President’s strengths and weaknesses – and we are about to learn more about those – a Harris presidency would continue to defend those fundamentals.
Most Canadians will be wishing her well.
Relations between Canada and the United States have generally gone well when Democrats are in the White House and Liberals are ensconced in Ottawa. (Franklin Roosevelt and Mackenzie King; John F. Kennedy and Lester Pearson; Bill Clinton and Jean Chrétien; both Barack Obama and Joe Biden and Justin Trudeau.)
Ms. Harris would know Canada better than any of her predecessors, having attended high school in Montreal from 1978 to 1981. As Vice-President, she has talked often with Mr. Trudeau, on issues ranging from gender equity to trade.
The Biden and Trudeau administrations get along well. “I’ve known President Biden for years,” Mr. Trudeau tweeted Sunday after the announcement. “He’s a great man, and everything he does is guided by his love for his country.”
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA – the successor to NAFTA that was negotiated when Mr. Trump was president – is up for review in 2026. On the whole, Canadian negotiators would much rather conduct those talks with a Democratic administration than a Republican.
In the world of realpolitik, however, there is reason to believe that a second Trump administration might get along better with a Canadian government led by Mr. Poilievre. The two men appeal to a roughly similar electorate: suburban and rural voters who believe that the liberal elites in both countries have forsaken their best interests through environmental and socially progressive obsessions.
President Trump and prime minister Poilievre, were such to come to pass, would speak roughly the same political vernacular, though not in the realm of immigration, which Mr. Trump wants to curtail – and then some – and which Mr. Poilievre supports.
Mr. Trump is threatening, if elected, to impose punitive tariffs on imports to the United States. Which Canadian government do you think would be more likely to persuade the Americans to exempt Canada from such tariffs: one led by Mr. Trudeau, or one led by Mr. Poilievre?
Durham MP Jamil Jivani, who is expected to be a major player in a Poilievre government, is a good friend of Mr. Vance. Both men broke through barriers to reach Yale Law School at the same time, where they became close friends.
We shouldn’t overstate that personal bond, but it’s fair to say it would be helpful.
But to keep on assessing the advantages and disadvantages of a Trump versus a Harris White House for Canada is to ignore the far larger issue. A Kamala Harris administration would defend the Western alliance. A Donald Trump administration would threaten it.
That alliance is embedded in Canada’s DNA. At Vimy Ridge and Normandy, during Bretton Woods and the founding of NATO, in Afghanistan and Latvia and in its support for Ukraine, this country has contributed to and fought for democracy and the rule of international law in the face of authoritarian threats.
The democratic anchors in the United States withstood the first Trump presidency and may well withstand the second. Republicans are right to question NATO’s over-dependence on the United States. Both Democrats and Republicans have good cause to assail Canada for failing to meet its defence obligations. The whole Western alliance needs a good shakeup by a new generation of leaders.
But shaking up is not destroying. Even though she arrives in the presidential race at almost the last minute, Kamala Harris is a safer bet for the United States, for Canada, for the world.