Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump waves while walking onstage for a campaign rally on Oct. 12 in Coachella, California. Support for the former president has increased among Canadian men, in particular those between 18 and 34.Mario Tama/Getty Images
The majority of Canadians prefer Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the U.S. election, but support for the former Republican president has increased here, especially among young men, according to a new poll.
The research, conducted by the Environics Institute in Toronto, also found that more Conservative Party voters prefer Mr. Trump than during the last U.S. presidential campaign, in 2020.
The Environics Institute research found Canadians three times more likely to prefer Democratic nominee and current Vice-President Kamala Harris to win the Nov. 5 presidential election over Mr. Trump – 60 per cent to 21 per cent.
But Mr. Trump’s total has risen from similar research conducted in 2020, when he had 15-per-cent support among Canadians surveyed compared with 67 per cent for the eventual winner, President Joe Biden.
According to the survey, the preference for Mr. Trump is higher among younger Canadians. One in two Canadians between 18 and 34 prefer Ms. Harris over Mr. Trump, but his greatest level of support still comes from that age group, at 28 per cent. For those aged 35 to 54, the level of support for Mr. Trump is 27 per cent. Among those 55 and over, it drops to 13 per cent.
Support for the former president has increased among Canadian men, in particular those between 18 and 34, with 36 per cent of that group preferring a win by Mr. Trump. That is a significant change from 2020, when younger men preferred Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump by a margin of 2-1 (52 per cent to 24 per cent).
Over all, if Canada were a U.S. state, the numbers suggest it would be among so-called blue states reliably supporting the Democrats, said Andrew Parkin, executive director of the Environics Institute.
“Everyone would ignore us, and no one would be campaigning here. No one would be spending any money on ads here because there would be no point.”
However, he added, the support for Mr. Trump speaks of a restive spirit in Canada, echoing similar sentiments in the United States.
“I wouldn’t read into it too much of a literal signing on to the Trump agenda. I wouldn’t say there’s that many more people in Canada with MAGA hats or whatever. But I think that the expression of support for Trump is aligned with a general expression of unsatisfaction with the status quo,” Mr. Parkin said.
“So if we see support for Trump going up, particularly among younger men, for instance, or people west of the Ottawa River et cetera, it’s just a sign that those groups are the most dissatisfied with or among the more dissatisfied with the way things are going on in the country. This is how they are expressing it.”
Perhaps not surprisingly, preference for Ms. Harris is higher among supporters of the Bloc Québécois, Liberal Party and the NDP, and lower among those of the Conservative Party, the research found.
Conservatives voiced 36-per-cent support for Ms. Harris, compared with 89 per cent of Bloc supporters, 85 per cent of Liberals and 82 per cent of New Democrats.
Meanwhile, 44 per cent of Conservatives support Mr. Trump, compared with 7 per cent of Bloc voters, 8 per cent of Liberals and 6 per cent of New Democrats.
Support for Mr. Trump has increased by 11 percentage points among Conservatives from 2020, but is unchanged among supporters of other parties.
Still, this year’s research found a stark division among Conservatives, with support for the former president much higher among men. Forty-eight per cent of male respondents in that group supported Mr. Trump, versus 36 per cent of the women. And only 31 per cent of the men supported Ms. Harris, compared with 45 per cent of the women.
When it comes to an overall opinion of the United States, the research found Canadians evenly split in their views.
Forty-seven per cent of respondents said they have a favourable opinion of Canada’s southern neighbour, with 45 per cent declaring it unfavourable. Seven per cent said they have no opinion either way.
The number of Canadians with a favourable view of the United States has increased 18 percentage points since Mr. Biden was elected.
Research for the survey consisted of landline and cellphone interviews with 2,016 individuals between Sept. 9 and 23. The results are considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points in 19 out of 20 samples.