The four party leaders participating in the French language debate tonight are Liberal leader Justin Trudeau (left,) Conservative leader Andrew Scheer (2nd left,) NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (2nd right) and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet.The Canadian Press
The focus will be on Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau as he participates in his first debate of the election campaign, but Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet will be looking to steal the show.
The first of two French-language television debates on Wednesday night stands to give a jolt to the election campaign in the key battleground of Quebec. It will be broadcast on all platforms in the Quebecor media empire.
Canadian federal election guide: What you need to know before Oct. 21
The province’s electorate remains unpredictable at the midway point of the campaign, which increases the stakes for the four party leaders who will face off for the first time in front of a large, mostly francophone television audience.
Joining Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Blanchet will be Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier, whose parties did not win seats under their respective banners in Quebec in 2015, were not invited.
Mr. Trudeau declined an invitation to the Maclean’s debate at the start of the campaign and his refusal to attend the Munk debate on foreign affairs led to the event’s cancellation.
His decision to attend Face-à-Face (Head-to-Head), which will feature one-on-one debates between leaders, as well as open floor debates, highlights the importance of Quebec for all parties.
At Parliament’s dissolution, the Liberals held 40 seats out of 78 in Quebec, followed by the NDP at 14, the Conservatives at 11, the Bloc at 10 and the People’s Party at one.
Under Mr. Blanchet, a strong communicator who is a former provincial minister and television analyst, the Bloc is hoping to act as a spoiler on Oct. 21. The separatist party is the only one that supports all of the demands laid out by Quebec Premier François Legault: a promise not to intervene in court challenges to its dress code restricting religious dress among some public servants; more power over immigration; imposing French-language laws over federally regulated companies in the province; and a single tax return to be administered by the Quebec revenue agency.
Having spent the past four years in power, Mr. Trudeau can expect to be the main target in Wednesday’s debate and the two consortium debates scheduled for next week. Still, Mr. Blanchet will likely attract much attention in the Face-à-Face debate as the Bloc is seen to have eaten into other parties’ support in recent weeks.
“I am not terrorized at all by the other leaders, but I still think – without appearing arrogant – that the pressure is on me,” Mr. Blanchet said in an interview.
Mr. Blanchet is arguing the next government could be a minority and his party is best positioned to defend Quebec’s interests regardless of who is in power.
Montreal-based pollster Jean-Marc Léger said the Bloc “has had a free ride” to this point in the campaign, and it will be interesting to see how Mr. Blanchet deals with attacks from other party leaders.
“It’s easy for the Bloc to defend Quebec’s interests. The harder part is to demonstrate its usefulness,” Mr. Léger said. “And the closer we get to Oct. 21, the more this becomes the ballot-box issue for the Bloc: Is it useful or am I wasting my vote?”
The Liberals are arguing that Quebeckers – particularly progressive voters – will be weakening re-election efforts if they opt for the Bloc.
“We want to show that we are the ones who can offer a green government, and in that context, a vote for the Bloc is a vote for the Conservatives,” said Liberal candidate Mélanie Joly, who is running for re-election in Montreal.
Mr. Scheer and the Conservatives are well aware they are fighting the Bloc for the anti-Trudeau vote in Quebec. The party supports Quebec’s demands for a single-income tax return and greater powers over immigration.
“My message to all Quebeckers is that the Conservative Party is the only one that can replace Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party,” he said at a news conference on Tuesday in Toronto.
The NDP and the Conservative Party are both promising not to participate in court challenges against the province’s secularism legislation. Still, Mr. Singh applauded Calgary City Council for adopting a motion condemning the law.
“I think [the law] is hurtful, I think it is divisive,” he said in Vancouver, before flying to Montreal to attend the debate.
The latest poll numbers from Nanos Research show the Liberals in the lead in Quebec with the support of 35.3 per cent of respondents, followed by the Bloc at 22 per cent. The Conservatives are at 17 per cent, followed by the NDP at 13.3 per cent and the Greens at 10.1. The People’s Party of Canada is at 1.8 per cent.
In Montreal, the Liberals (39.7 per cent) have a lead of nearly 18 points over the Bloc (21.9 per cent), and of more than 26 points over the other parties. The race is tighter in the rest of the province, with the Liberals at 29.4 per cent, the Bloc at 22.1 per cent, the Conservatives at 21.8 per cent, the NDP at 13.6 per cent and the Greens at 9.6 per cent.
The poll was sponsored by The Globe and Mail and CTV, with 828 respondents surveyed from Sept. 21 to 30. It has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 for the provincewide numbers. Because of a smaller sample size, the margin of error is 5.7 points outside of Montreal, while it is of 4.4 percentage points in Montreal.
Respondents were asked: “If a federal election were held today, could you please rank your top two current local voting preferences?” A report on the results, questions and methodology for this and all surveys can be found at tgam.ca/election-polls.