The number of applications to study in Canada is projected to drop 39 per cent in global applications for Canadian study permits in 2024, compared with 2023.DARRYL DYCK/The Canadian Press
Approvals of international study permits are projected to drop by almost half this year, according to a new analysis based on government figures, suggesting that federal measures to reduce foreign student numbers are set to have a more dramatic impact than expected.
The report by ApplyBoard, a company that connects international students with universities and colleges worldwide, forecasts that approvals of study permits by the end of the year are likely to drop back to levels seen in 2018 and 2019 “in the mid 200,000s.”
The number of applications to study in Canada, including by postgraduate students who were not included in the cap, has also sharply dropped this year, found the report, which is set to be published Tuesday. It projects a 39-per-cent drop in global applications for Canadian study permits in 2024, compared with 2023.
Meti Basiri, chief executive officer and co-founder of ApplyBoard, said in an interview Monday that the government’s announcement of higher financial requirements to study in Canada starting this year is having a deterrent effect on some international students, and that others were being put off by hints of further immigration restrictions to come.
As a result, Canada in recent months has not been seen as being as welcoming as it once was to international students, he said. Many are pausing or deferring applications to come to the country to study, or applying to other locations, the report adds.
Mr. Basiri said Canada has fallen to third from the top spot as a study destination on ApplyBoard, with more students now opting to study in the United States, as well as European countries including Germany and France.
In December last year, Immigration Minister Marc Miller said international students who want to come to Canada will need to prove they have at least $20,000 in order to qualify for study permits – more than twice as much as previously required. The policy change was designed to cut escalating foreign student numbers and better reflect the rise in the cost of living, including housing, in Canada.
In January, Mr. Miller announced there would be “no further growth” in the number of international students in the country for the next two years. That was projected to lead to a 35-per-cent drop in the number of students in 2024 compared with last year.
But the ApplyBoard report estimates that, if the government’s study permit approval rates stay at 51 per cent, there will be just more than 231,000 new study permits approved in 2024.
“This projected approval count is roughly 47 per cent lower than the 436,000 new study permits which were approved in 2023,” the report says.
In April, Mr. Miller announced the number of applications for study permits would be capped at 606,000. Based on an average approval rate of 60 per cent, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) said the total number of new study permits they would approve would be 364,000.
The ApplyBoard report says that, “based on data from the first half of 2024, both application and approval volumes are lagging behind government targets.”
The number of students opting to study here from India, which has long been a leading source of international students, has dropped sharply this year.
In the first half of this year, approvals of study permits from India halved, the report says. Study permit approvals dipped by more than 70 per cent for Nigerian students, with a decrease of 65 per cent for students from the Philippines and 76 per cent from Nepal, the report says.
“So far in 2024, the number of processed study permit applications is down across the board for post-secondary programs,” the report says.
It says applications processed for master’s and doctoral programs – which were not caught in the cap imposed by the government – also dropped significantly in the first half of 2024, and the trend is projected to continue.
Last week, Gabriel Miller, president of Universities Canada, a lobby group representing nearly 100 institutions, said he expects universities to see at least a 45-per-cent drop in international enrolments this fall.
Between April and June, 127,700 new study permits were processed by IRCC, the ApplyBoard report says, representing a 54-per-cent drop compared with the same period last year.
The report observes a similar trend in the number of study permit approvals. Between January and June, just under 114,000 were approved, representing a 48-per-cent decrease compared with the same period last year.
IRCC spokesperson Jeffrey MacDonald said in a statement that “early signs indicate that the cap announced on January 22, 2024, is impacting study-permit volumes.“ He said that, between January and June, the number of applications for new study permits reflected a 46-per-cent drop compared with the same period last year, while approvals were down by about 44 per cent.
But as “changes to the international student program have not yet been in effect through the busiest season for study permit processing and issuance (summer and early fall), it is too early to fully assess data and analyze the impact of the intake cap on study permit applications.”
The number of study permit applications for 2025 will be reassessed at the end of this year, Mr. MacDonald said, in consultation with provinces and universities and colleges.