Erin O'Toole speaks during a media availability in West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on Jan. 27. O'Toole will give up his seat in the House of Commons at the close of the spring session.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
In the end, Erin O’Toole just wasn’t angry enough.
The former leader of the Conservative Party has announced he will be giving up his seat at the close of the spring session. The member for Durham came tantalizingly close to winning the 2021 federal election. But like so many Conservative leaders before him, he was undone by his own party.
That fate will not befall his successor. Pierre Poilievre owns the Conservative Party in a way not seen since Stephen Harper first created it in 2004. Mr. Poilievre has more than enough anger to satisfy the Conservative base. Mr. O’Toole’s more accommodating, reasoned approach has gone out of style.
He was eminently qualified to be prime minister, with a CV that included a stint in both the air force and corporate law, and a brief period in cabinet. He represented a riding in the Greater Toronto Area, and identified with the aspirations and concerns of middle-class suburban voters.
When Andrew Scheer was forced out of the Conservative leadership, having failed to defeat the Liberals in 2019, Mr. O’Toole’s team planned to pitch him as a sensibly conservative alternative to Mr. Poilievre, who was also expected to run.
But Mr. Poilievre stayed out of the race, opening up a large space on the right flank of the party that Mr. O’Toole rushed to fill, by billing himself as the True Blue Conservative.
It worked. Mr. O’Toole defeated the more centrist Peter MacKay, his most serious opponent, and became leader in August, 2020.
But Mr. O’Toole had two problems. First, Canada was in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments were providing massive, debt-fuelled economic supports to bolster a frightened electorate. This was not a good time to be a leader of the opposition.
Mr. O’Toole’s second problem was internal. Despite campaigning as a Blue Conservative, more than a third of Conservative voters cast ballots for candidates well to the right of him.
But Mr. O’Toole knew that the suburban voters he needed to court were more worried about economic insecurity and global warming than about gun rights and defunding the CBC.
So he pivoted, proposing a form of a carbon tax as well as pension supports for gig workers, increased health care funding, housing subsidies and even supports for unions.
It almost worked. When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the 2021 election in August, the question was whether the Liberals would secure a majority government. A week or so later the two parties were running neck-and-neck.
But then the rising caseload of the Delta variant made COVID the number one issue again. Because of resistance within his caucus and party, Mr. O’Toole couldn’t support vaccine mandates and passports, though the broader population did. That proved fatal.
On voting day, the Conservatives surpassed the Liberals in the popular vote. But the Liberals won the suburban vote splits in Greater Toronto and Vancouver.
Having come so close, Mr. O’Toole should have concentrated on broadening the appeal of his party while preparing for the next election. But his platform had angered the base, and he had failed to consult or persuade much of the caucus.
On Feb. 2 of last year, as horn-honking anti-vax protesters clogged the streets of Ottawa, Mr. O’Toole was ousted by his own caucus. In the months that followed, people flocked to the Conservative Party in record numbers to vote in Pierre Poilievre.
But the same issue of transitioning to address the priorities of suburban middle-class voters awaits him. How does he get from where he is to where he needs to be?
It may not matter. High inflation, high interest rates, fear of rising crime and the exhaustion of the Trudeau Liberals may put the Conservatives into office after the next election, regardless of who leads either party.
But we may one day wish we’d had Mr. O’Toole as prime minister. He offered optimistic, inclusive and responsible conservative government. During the 2021 campaign I called his election manifesto “thoughtful populism.” The term fit the politician as well as the platform.
Former Progressive Conservative leader Robert Stanfield has been dubbed the best prime minister Canada never had. We may one day say the same of Erin O’Toole.
Editor’s note: (April 5, 2023): An earlier version of this article incorrectly said Erin O'Toole was in the Navy. In fact, he served in the Air Force.