Good morning,
Is this the Ontario NDP’s moment?
It’s been 23 years and six elections since the party was in power, but the New Democracts appear to finally be back in the running. Recent polls show all the momentum is gathering behind an orange wave, threatening the long-standing lead the Progressive Conservatives had held.
What’s motivating this surge of support for the Dippers? It could be unhappiness with the other guys. An Ipsos poll suggests most people supporting the party right now are trying to prevent the Liberals or PCs from winning.
Whether that holds will be only known on election night. In the spring of 2015, the Alberta NDP overtook two rival parties and ousted the long-governing PCs. Later that year the federal NDP looked to do the same, and were even leading in polls – until fading in the final stretch.
This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Chris Hannay in Ottawa, Mayaz Alam in Toronto and James Keller in Vancouver. If you’re reading this on the web or someone forwarded this email newsletter to you, you can sign up for Politics Briefing and all Globe newsletters here. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.
CANADIAN HEADLINES
The federal Liberals have introduced a new bill aimed at moving family-law cases out of the courtroom where possible, to help to defuse conflicts that can be traumatic for children.
Canada’s new chief electoral officer says his agency will be able to institute new election rules in time for next year’s vote. But one mystery remains: why the Liberal government prepared to name one new officer, only to change their minds on the appointment at the last minute.
The government has spent more than $24-million on Facebook ads over three years.
The Privacy Commissioner says he is concerned about provisions in the Liberals’ budget bill that changes rules on how banks can use customers’ personal data.
The Fisheries Minister says it is unavoidable that he would award a licence to a company with family ties, because, for example, his wife has 60 first cousins.
The Finance Minister stuck to his script last night.
The Parti Québécois unveiled its new immigration policy, which would encourage immigrants to settle outside of the greater Montreal area and force newcomers to pass a French test before arriving in the province. The announcement comes during an election year, with Quebeckers set to vote on Oct. 1.
And British Columbia has filed a lawsuit alleging that Alberta’s law that cuts off fossil fuel supplies to Canada’s western-most province will cause it irreparable harm. The suit is the latest step in the two provinces’ ongoing battle over Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline.
Adam Radwanski (The Globe and Mail) on the Ontario NDP: “ This is not a race in which Ontarians are falling in love with Ms. Horwath after easily resisting her charms twice previously, so much as one in which they’re looking at their options and figuring they might as well give her a try.”
Tim Harper (Toronto Star) on the last Ontario NDP government: “Any voter under 23 casting a ballot on June 7 was not even born during Rae’s government, and a huge voting cohort was playing in sandboxes or grappling with Grade 5 math tests at that time. They have no memory of the Rae government.”
Hamilton Spectator editorial board on Ontario PCs’ alleged data breach: “There may or may not be a fire here, but there’s enough smoke to justify a full-scale probe. But Ford is having none of that. He says it’s all Patrick Brown’s fault and that he has cleaned up the mess. He also says the PCs will investigate any irregularities internally. Ford is a relative political neophyte, so perhaps can be forgiven for thinking he can so easily dismiss this potential scandal. But his seasoned party brain trust should know better.”
David Reevely (Ottawa Citizen) on candidate vetting: “The right has people who’ve been tools on Twitter. On the left, it’s people who’ve written 73-page neo-Marxist screeds that they were downright eager to put their names on in 2006 or whenever. Rival war rooms have people up all night poring over them, finding fun stuff.”
Margaret Wente (The Globe and Mail) on a rock and a hard place:”Mr. Ford, as we know, is a blustering ignoramus. The liberal punditocracy likes to label him as a northern Donald Trump. He’s got no platform, no budget and no grasp of policy. He doesn’t even know how the legislature works. Like Mr. Trump, he’s a rich guy who rails away at the elites. The NDP’s Ms. Horwath doesn’t get anything like the same amount of scrutiny, possibly because she seems like a nice and decent person – and her politics strike many journalists as relatively harmless. In normal times, which these are not, Ms. Horwath would probably be winding down her political career as the leader of a quite minor third party. As it is, she could wind up as premier. In which case, God help us all.”
INTERNATIONAL HEADLINES
Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg was grilled by members of Europe’s Parliament, who questioned whether the social media giant is a monopoly and threat to democracy that should be broken up. Mr. Zuckerberg was in Brussels answering for his company’s role in Cambridge Analytica’s improper use of Facebook user data. The hearing suggested that Europe’s lawmakers were more than ready to stake out a more aggressive regulatory stance toward tech companies than the U.S.
U.S. President Donald Trump cast serious doubt on the planned June 12 summit between North Korea and the United States. “There’s a very substantial chance that it won’t work out, and that’s okay,” Mr. Trump said in the Oval Office, sitting next to South Korean President Moon Jae-in. “That doesn’t mean it won’t work out over a period of time. But it may not work out for June 12th. But there’s a good chance that we’ll have the meeting.”
South Africa is considering suspending a US$1.2-billion contract with Bombardier in a probe into corruption and escalating costs in a US$5-billion locomotive project. Export Development Canada gave US$450-million in financing to help the Quebec-based transportation company secure a contract in the locomotive project.
Mexico’s relatively low wages compared to Canada and the U.S. have become a sticking point in NAFTA talks, but labour woes run deeper. Workers and union activists say wages are only part of the problem, pointing to poor working conditions.
Iran is asking Europe to step up and save the nuclear deal that the U.S. has decided to pull out of. The deal, signed by the U.S., France, Britain, Germany, Russia, China and Iran, removed sanctions on the Islamic republic in exchange for limitations on Tehran’s nuclear program.
Brazilian President Michel Temer will no longer run for re-election and is instead supporting his former finance minister, Henrique Meirelles, to stand as the presidential candidate for his party. Mr. Temer’s approval rating is in the single digits in a country that has seen its political system be plagued by a series of political scandals.
In a new report, Amnesty International is accusing Rohingya insurgents of killing dozens of Hindus in Myanmar last year. The massacre is said to have happened on the same day Rohingya militants attacked 30 police posts and an army base in Rakhine state.
Saudi Arabia has arrested at least three more women’s rights activists in a growing crackdown just weeks before the kingdom would have finally lifted a ban on driving for women, according to rights watchdogs.
Palestine is demanding a full investigation at the International Criminal Court into what it says are Israel’s human rights abuses on Palestinian territory. Canada says it backs a push for an independent probe.
And a sinkhole has opened up on the White House lawn.
Lloyd Axworthy and Paul Heinbecker (The Globe and Mail) on the global refugee crisis: “Ideas are not lacking; urgency is, in the mistaken belief or cynical calculation in many capitals that the cost of ignoring the refugee challenge is tolerable. There is too much rhetoric and not enough collaborative action.”
Bessma Momani (The Globe and Mail) on Saudi Arabia: “Saudi Arabia’s brash Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) may be trying to tout his image as a reformer, but his government’s arrests of at least seven activists a few weeks before the country permits women to drive is meant to remind his citizens that the new Saudi Arabia is the same as the old: autocratic.”
Zheger Hassan (The Globe and Mail) on Iraq’s election: “Political parties and their leaders have begun jockeying to form Iraq’s next coalition government. Who will emerge to govern Iraq for the next four years is uncertain. What we do know is that if corruption continues unchecked, Iraq’s democratic robustness will be put to the test over the coming years.”
Peter Shawn Taylor (The Globe and Mail) on Haiti: “Over the next 10 years, Canada and other developed countries plan to spend billions building hospitals, roads, ports and airports for Haiti, just as the Americans did from 1915 to 1934. But if we don’t make an equally massive commitment to leave behind a real democracy - and Haiti remains one of the world’s most corrupt and dysfunctional countries - then it will all be for naught.”
Linda Nazareth (The Globe and Mail) on expectations and the economy: “Those realities should not stop anyone from investing or buying homes, and the fact that the economy is changing around us should not stop people from acquiring skills and businesses either. More than ever, however, we all need to go into the future with our eyes wide open. ”
Help The Globe monitor political ads on Facebook: During an election campaign, you can expect to see a lot of political ads. But Facebook ads, unlike traditional media, can be targeted to specific users and only be seen by certain subsets of users, making the ads almost impossible to track. The Globe and Mail wants to report on how these ads are used, but we need to see the same ads Facebook users are seeing. Here is how you can help.
Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop