Hello,
Voters in four federal ridings have the chance to weigh in on Canadian politics Monday.
Two of the ridings were previously held by the Liberals and two were held by the Conservatives. Political observers expect the results will return the status quo, but by-elections – which typically feature low turnouts – can sometimes deliver surprises.
Even if the party standings remain the same, party strategists will be dissecting the results for signs of momentum in comparison to the last campaign. With that in mind, here’s how those four ridings shaped up in the September, 2021, election and what to watch for in each race:
Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Westmount, Que.
Last time: This was a strong Liberal win in 2021 for former cabinet minister Marc Garneau, who secured 54 per cent of the vote. The NDP was second with 19 per cent, followed by 14 per cent for the Conservatives.
What to watch for: Liberal candidate Anna Gainey is widely viewed as the front-runner, but one twist in this race is the decision of Green Party Deputy Leader Jonathan Pedneault to run here for a seat in the House of Commons.
Oxford, Ont.
Last time: Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie won easily in 2021, with 47 per cent of the vote, followed by the Liberal candidate who received the support of 20 per cent. Mr. MacKenzie had held the riding since 2006.
What to watch for: Mr. MacKenzie is endorsing the Liberal candidate in the by-election over concerns about the Conservative nomination process. Party Leader Pierre Poilievre endorsed Mississauga lawyer Arpan Khanna in a field of candidates that included Mr. MacKenzie’s daughter, Deb Tait.
Winnipeg South Centre, Manitoba
Last time: This is historically a safe Liberal seat, though it last went Conservative for one term when Joyce Bateman won under then-leader Stephen Harper in 2011. In 2021, Jim Carr won 45 per cent of the vote. Ms. Bateman placed second with 28 per cent of the vote.
This time Ben Carr is running in place of his late father for the Liberals. The Conservative candidate is Damir Stipanovic.
What to watch for: A crowded field. There are 48 candidates running in this by-election, including 43 independents. Many of the independent candidates are part of a protest movement called the Longest Ballot Committee, which supports a move toward proportional representation.
Parties fielding candidates include the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP, People’s Party of Canada, the Green Party and the Rhinoceros Party.
The Rhino candidate is Sébastien CoRhino, the party leader.
Portage-Lisgar, Manitoba
Last time: This is one of the most Conservative ridings in Canada. Candice Bergen was elected to a fifth consecutive term in 2021, with 52 per cent of the vote. That was down from 71 per cent in 2019.
What to watch for: The Bernier factor. People’s Party of Canada candidate Solomon Wiebe rode a wave of frustration over COVID-19 restrictions to a second-place finish in 2021, receiving 22 per cent of the vote. The PPC failed to win a single seat nationally in 2021, but party leader and former Conservative cabinet minister Maxime Bernier is running here this time, after failing to get elected in his home riding of Beauce, Que.
The Conservative candidate is Branden Leslie.
More details on the four by-election races can be found here in this report by The Canadian Press.
This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. Today’s newsletter is co-written by Bill Curry. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter sign-up page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.
TODAY'S HEADLINES
MCKINSEY PITCHED PURDUE PHARMA CANADA ON PLAN TO BOOST OPIOID SALES: MEMO – Global consulting giant McKinsey & Co., under the leadership of Dominic Barton, pitched Purdue Pharma (Canada) in 2014 on how it could more aggressively market and boost sales of OxyContin and other highly addictive opioids to Canadians, according to a confidential memo obtained by The Globe and Mail. Story here.
FOCUS ON BIG CITIES TO BECOME PM: O’TOOLE TO POILIEVRE – To become prime minister, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre needs to convince voters in Canada’s big cities that his approach to priority issues is in the national interest, Erin O’Toole says. Story here.
PEI GREEN LEADER STEPS DOWN – The politician who guided Prince Edward Island’s Green Party to four years as the province’s official Opposition – the best result for a Green Party in Canada – is stepping down as leader. Story here.
THIS AND THAT
TODAY IN THE COMMONS – Projected Order of Business at the House of Commons, June. 19, accessible here.
MINISTERS ON THE ROAD – Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne, in Paris, was attending the Paris Air Show through to Wednesday to make an announcement on sustainable aviation.
IN OTTAWA – Veterans Affairs Minister Lawrence MacAulay announced the selected design for the National Monument to Canada’s Mission in Afghanistan.
COMMONS COMMITTEES – Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Marc Miller appears at the Indigenous and northern affairs committee hearing on Bill C-51.
HELPING CONSERVATIVES RECRUIT CONSERVATIVES – A veteran conservative campaign manager has created an online platform for helping conservative political leaders connect with qualified, like-minded staff across Canada. Right Recruiter was founded by Steve Outhouse, who ran Leslyn Lewis’s bid for the federal Conservative leadership and also worked on the re-election bid of Danielle Smith and Alberta’s United Conservative Party. “The initial response to Right Recruiter has been very encouraging. Staffing is one of the biggest challenges we have in politics, and lots of experienced conservatives have reached out to say this is a much-needed initiative,” Mr. Outhouse said in an e-mail exchange. “We’ve started to receive resumes already, and are looking forward to helping conservative political offices grow their team.”
PRIME MINISTER'S DAY
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in the Halifax region with Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair and Immigration Minister Sean Fraser, was scheduled to visit a local fire station and meet with firefighters. Mr. Trudeau was then scheduled to attend a first responder appreciation event with Mr. Blair and meet with residents’ association representatives. In the afternoon, in Antigonish, N.S., Mr. Trudeau was to meet with Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston and in the evening, deliver remarks at the Atlantic Economic Forum, accompanied by Mr. Fraser and Official Languages Minister Ginette Petitpas Taylor.
LEADERS
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and Deputy Leader Jonathan Pedneault were scheduled to attend an event at party campaign headquarters for Monday’s by-election in the Montreal riding of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce – Westmount.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Ottawa, was scheduled to take questions from reporters before participating in Question Period, but that was cancelled because of what the party said was a scheduling issue.
The NDP held a news conference to highlight union concerns over a $560-million contract issued by Veterans Affairs Canada related to its rehabilitation program. The contract was recently the subject of a report by the House of Commons committee on veterans affairs.
No schedules released for other leaders.
THE DECIBEL
On Monday’s edition of The Globe and Mail podcast, Globe and Mail reporter Andrea Woo explains the workings of British Columbia’s plan to send cancer patients to the United States for radiation therapy in order to deal with growing wait times and backlog at home. The Decibel is here.
PUBLIC OPINION
The three main national party leaders are all facing stark gender divides when it comes to voter support, according to a new survey by the Angus Reid Institute. The survey found Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s approval rating is at 43 per cent among women, but only 29 per cent with men. The results are reversed and even more lopsided for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Nearly half (47 per cent) of male respondents said they hold a favourable view of Mr. Poilievre, compared to 26 per cent of women. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is viewed favourably by 53 per cent of women, but only 38 per cent of men.
The online survey of 3,885 Canadian adults who participate in the Angus Reid Forum took place from May 30 to June 3.
OPINION
The Globe and Mail Editorial Board on how transparency is the remedy for the secrecy that clouds a Supreme Court justice’s resignation: “A foundational principle of the rule of law in a democracy is transparency. The doors of a court are open, for the most part. Evidence almost always is weighed in public. In the strange saga of now former Supreme Court of Canada justice Russell Brown, transparency has been missing in action. We live in an era of rising distrust in institutions. They are questioned, often rightly so. Trust must be earned, every day, and transparency is the currency that builds and fortifies trust. Courts are central to society’s village square and trust in the courts is paramount. The chronology of the Brown case illuminates the piecemeal nature in which facts and allegations emerged. It has eroded trust.”
Tony Keller (The Globe and Mail) on how, with pharmacare, Canadians would pay less and get more: “Today, let’s look at an example of a proposed government program that, if done correctly, can deliver more than the status quo, while costing billions of dollars less. Think of that old Miller Lite advertising slogan: “Everything you always wanted in a beer. And less.” I’m talking about pharmacare.”
Payam Akhavan and Alex Neve (Contributed to The Globe and Mail) on how Canada is rightly seeking accountability for Syrians at the International Court of Justice: “The bottom line is that there can be no sustainable peace and genuine reconciliation in Syria without accountability for human rights violations and justice for its victims and survivors. Those willing to sweep these atrocities under the carpet must ask: what kind of peace is possible without justice? How can Syrians achieve healing and reconciliation if those responsible for mass murder remain untouched and in power?”
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