Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responds to a question during Question Period, in Ottawa, on Oct. 23.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
Ottawa is set to announce a major reduction in the number of permanent residents it plans to allow to settle in Canada in a sharp change of course as public support for rising immigration continues to wane.
The announcement of this year’s immigration levels plan on Thursday, which a senior government source says will be made by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, will set out how many permanent residents Canada plans to accept in the next three years.
Another senior government source said Ottawa plans to reduce permanent resident numbers from 485,000 this year to 395,000 in 2025. It plans to cut numbers to 380,000 in 2026 and to 365,000 in 2027, the source said. The Globe and Mail is not naming the sources as they are not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.
The policy reversal follows a sharp drop in public support for current immigration levels as polls show Canadians are concerned about its impact, including on the cost of housing.
Last year, Immigration Minister Marc Miller froze targets for permanent residents at half a million, after years of increases. But the cuts being announced Thursday go much further.
For the first time, the government will also set targets for the number of temporary residents, who include international students and people here on work permits, as part of Ottawa’s annual immigration levels plan.
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada has a goal to reduce temporary resident numbers from 6.5 per cent of the total Canadian population to 5 per cent over the next three years. But the numbers had risen to 7.3 per cent earlier this year.
In last year’s immigration levels plan, Ottawa froze its target for how many permanent residents it aims to accept to Canada for 2026, keeping the number static at 500,000 in the face of shrinking public support for immigration levels. Last year, the federal government stuck with its targets of 485,000 permanent residents for 2024, and 500,000 for 2025. In previous years, the Liberal government had increased its immigration targets.
A poll earlier this month showed 58 per cent of Canadians surveyed thought there was too much immigration into the country, a rise of 14 percentage points from similar research last year, according to Environics Institute research. That followed a 17-per-cent increase between 2022 and 2023.
The spokesperson for a leading migrants’ advocacy group said that any reduction in immigration levels would be pandering to prejudicial public sentiment.
“If there is even a small reduction in permanent immigration levels, the Liberal government would be pandering to the xenophobic idea that migrants are responsible for the housing and affordability crisis,” said Syed Hussan of the Migrants Rights Network.
He also warned against further reductions in refugee numbers, helped to come here by the government under Ottawa’s humanitarian stream, saying it would signal it is abandoning its commitments under the Geneva Convention.
Canada’s population, according to Statistics Canada’s real-time population clock, is now 41.7 million.
Lisa Lalande, CEO of the Century Initiative, an influential non-profit think tank that wants to see Canada’s population grow to 100 million by 2100, warned that reducing the numbers of permanent residents could have implications for staffing Canada’s health services, construction industry and other sectors.
“We support a continuation of 500,000 new permanent residents in 2025 and 2026, recognizing that permanent residents who help address our labour market needs must play a central role in our growth planning,” Ms. Lalande said in a statement. “Let’s not forget that with one of the world’s lowest fertility rates and an aging population, maintaining high levels of permanent immigration is crucial to offset demographic decline, sustain public services, and support future economic growth.”
She said it would be a “categorical mistake” to reduce numbers, and “the ultimate hammer solution to a problem far more complex than a few loose nails.”
Diana Palmerin-Velasco, senior director, future of work, at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, said “Businesses across the country are increasingly worried about the recent abrupt changes to immigration policy and their potential repercussions on labour supply and economic growth.”
“We encourage the government to maintain 60 per cent of immigration levels within the economic class,” she added. “These individuals are chosen for their skills and their potential to make a significant positive contribution on our economy.”
Henry Lotin, the founder of Integrative Trade and Economics and a former federal economist, said he expects the government to also set out a target for converting temporary residents to permanent residents.
He said many of the people who get the right to stay in Canada permanently are in fact already living here.
“I’m anticipating that they will differentiate between permanent residents who they admit from abroad from those they admit within Canada who are already here,” he said. “It would achieve a number of objectives including appearing to slow net population growth.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre attacked the government’s record on housing and immigration in the Commons on Wednesday, saying “tomorrow the Prime Minister plans to reverse and swallow himself whole on immigration.”