Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks about an opposition motion in the House of Commons, in Ottawa on Sept. 24.Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press
When the NDP pulled out of the deal propping up the Liberals, it put the fate of the ruling minority government in jeopardy. Without the NDP’s automatic support, the Liberal government could fall any time there’s a vote which involves a matter of confidence, such as a budget, or if an opposition party files a motion specifically expressing that the House of Common has lost confidence in the government.
On Sept. 24, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre moved a non-confidence motion in an attempt to trigger an election. The vote will take place on Sept. 25.
Here’s what to know about the confidence votes, opposition days and the likelihood of an election sometime soon.
What is a confidence motion or non-confidence vote?
In Canada, the government must have the support of a majority of members of Parliament to stay in power, and confidence votes play a key role in the framework of responsible government.
There are different kinds of confidence votes. Some are automatic, such as budgets, economic updates, and the Speech from the Throne, which is the speech that opens each session of Parliament where the government outlines its upcoming priorities.
Opposition parties are also able to put forward non-confidence motions on specific days of the parliamentary calendar, called opposition days. Non-confidence motions trigger a debate and then a vote by MPs.
What are opposition days?
The opposition parties are allotted a set number of days – seven or eight in each period of roughly three months – when they can put forward their own motions, including a non-confidence motion. Most of those days belong to the Official Opposition, currently the Conservatives. However, the government controls the scheduling of those dates.
The first opposition day for the Conservatives is Sept. 24, which is when the party moved a non-confidence motion. Earlier in September, Conservative Leader Poilievre urged the Bloc Québécois and the NDP to side with him and trigger a fall election campaign.
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Why did the Conservatives file a confidence motion?
Mr. Poilievre vowed to move a confidence motion at his earliest opportunity when Parliament resumed in the fall. That day is Sept. 24, the first Conservative opposition day this session. The Conservatives’ motion states: “The House has no confidence in the Prime Minister and the Government.”
This isn’t the first time Mr. Poilievre has filed a motion – he also did in March, 2024 over the Liberals’ carbon pricing policy – but this is the first opportunity to do so since the dissolution of the Liberals-NDP deal.
How have the NDP and the Bloc Québécois said they will vote?
Both the NDP and the Bloc Québécois said they will vote against a Conservative Party non-confidence motion, meaning the Liberals will survive its first test since the NDP pulled out of its deal with the government.
Hours after the Conservatives released the wording of the motion on Sept. 18, Leader Yves-François Blanchet announced his party would vote against the motion, saying “The motion doesn’t contain anything. It essentially says, ‘Do you want to replace Justin Trudeau with Pierre Poilievre?’ The answer is no.”
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh also said his party would vote against the motion, noting that pharmacare legislation, a major priority for the NDP, has not yet been passed into law and a new election could put the bill in jeopardy.
When could a confidence vote be triggered next?
Another big test for the Liberals could come later this fall if the government tables an economic update in Parliament. If the Liberals survive that, another decisive moment will be the vote on the next federal budget implementation bill, likely next spring.
What happens if a government loses a confidence vote?
If a government loses a confidence vote, the Prime Minister and cabinet will resign or ask the Governor-General to dissolve Parliament. A federal election is then held.
How did we get here?
When the Liberals only won a minority government in 2022, it formed a deal with the NDP called a supply-and-confidence agreement. That agreement meant that NDP MPs would automatically support the Liberals on confidence votes in exchange for pushing through various NDP priorities, including a dental-care program for low-income Canadians and pharmacare.
As part of the deal, the NDP also promised not to move a vote of non-confidence or vote for a non-confidence motion until the House rises ahead of the next fixed-date election, which would be in 2025.
But on Sept. 4, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced his party was pulling out of the deal.
The end of the deal does not necessarily mean an election will take place before next year, but it does mean the NDP will now vote on Liberal legislation on a case-by-case basis.
With reports from Bill Curry, Marieke Walsh, Danielle Groen and Canadian Press