Canadians were slightly supportive of Liberal, NDP deal, new poll shows

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The now-defunct deal between the NDP and Liberals divided Canadians, according to a new poll by Nanos Research that shows a slight majority of respondents supported the agreement if it meant avoiding an early election call.

On Wednesday, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh caught Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals by surprise and announced he had “ripped up” his formal deal to support the minority government in the House of Commons.

Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos said support for the deal suggests that the New Democrats had other internal political objectives for cancelling the agreement 10 months early. For example, he said the NDP may have decided to distance the party from the Liberals in advance of next year’s federal election and in the near term to “inoculate Singh from potential negative outcomes in the upcoming two by-elections.”

According to the poll, conducted exclusively for The Globe and Mail, 54 per cent of respondents said they support or somewhat support the Liberals and NDP continuing to work together in the House of Commons in 2025 so there is not an early election.

In contrast, 42 per cent said they were opposed or somewhat opposed. The remaining 4 per cent were unsure.

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The hybrid telephone and online poll was conducted between Aug. 30 and Sept. 2. With 1,093 respondents, it has a margin of error of three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The gender divide on the issue is even more pronounced, Mr. Nanos noted. Among women respondents, 61 per cent supported or somewhat supported the NDP-Liberal deal, while only 48 per cent of men held the same view.

Despite the slight edge for the deal and the policy wins that the NDP have secured through it, Mr. Nanos said it hasn’t boosted the party’s fortunes among the electorate, leaving it with only a “moral victory.”

Since the deal was struck, the Nanos poll tracker shows NDP support has stayed in the high teens or low 20s. Comparatively, the Conservatives have dramatically increased their lead over the Liberals, and now sit around 40 per cent while Mr. Trudeau’s party is in the mid-20s.

The popularity of initiatives such as the dental-care program has led the Liberals to claim it as their own when they defend their record in government, but Mr. Nanos said such policies don’t rank high on the priority list when the top concerns are paying for rent and covering basic needs such as groceries.

He said the end of the deal marks the unofficial start of the next election cycle and the focus of attention on Parliament Hill will shift to when the election will officially be triggered.