Former Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney, left, at Downing Street, in London, on July 9. Mr. Carney has been often floated as a potential successor to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, should he resign.Chris J. Ratcliffe/Reuters
While Canadians have a more favourable view of former central banker Mark Carney than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, most don’t think adding him to the minority government’s cabinet would help the Liberals’ fortunes, according to a new poll by Nanos Research.
Mr. Carney has been often floated as a potential successor to Mr. Trudeau, should he resign. In the meantime, some Liberals have advocated for him to join the government as finance minister to bolster its economic credentials and the Prime Minister has been openly courting Mr. Carney.
The former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor though has remained mum on his political future and Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos says the latest polling shows while his joining the Liberals wouldn’t hurt them, it also wouldn’t dramatically change their fortunes.
The poll conducted exclusively for The Globe and Mail shows 39 per cent of respondents believe appointing Mr. Carney as finance minister would have no impact on how people vote. A further 29 per cent said it would help the Liberals be more competitive in the next election, 8 per cent said it would make the incumbent less competitive, and 24 per cent said they were unsure.
The poll also shows that despite critiques from the Prime Minister’s Office of current Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, as The Globe reported in July, she has a more positive image with Canadians than Mr. Trudeau does.
Among poll respondents, 35 per cent said they had a positive or somewhat positive opinion of Ms. Freeland, 17 per cent said they were neutral on her, and 44 per cent said their opinion was negative or somewhat negative. A further 4 per cent said they were unsure.
For the Prime Minister, only 24 per cent of respondents said they had a positive or somewhat positive opinion of him, 13 per cent were neutral, and 63 per cent said their opinion was negative or somewhat negative.
“If the Liberals want to improve their fortunes, they should be looking at the person that has the weakest brand and right now it’s Justin Trudeau,” Mr. Nanos said.
“We have a federal party leader and a Prime Minister, that’s unpopular, trying to patch up the political fortunes of his party, when the reality is that he is fundamentally the biggest negative draw right now for the Liberals.”
Mr. Carney, who has the lowest public profile of the three Liberals, also had the lowest negatives among poll respondents. Thirty-three per cent of respondents had a positive or somewhat positive opinion of him, 30 per cent were neutral, 24 per cent said their opinion was negative or somewhat negative, and 14 per cent were unsure.
The Liberals have been in power since 2015 and in addition to the wear and tear of nine years in office, Mr. Nanos said the Prime Minister’s fortunes are also being hurt by economic conditions that have made affordability concerns a top issue.
Since August, 2023, Mr. Nanos said the polls have shown no significant change, with the Conservatives leading far ahead around 40 points in the polls and the Liberals trailing in the mid-20s.
“The rising cost of living and people’s having issues with housing affordability doesn’t lend itself to people feeling positive about any incumbent government,” Mr. Nanos said.
For voters, Mr. Nanos said likely the only change the Liberals could make to change their prospects is changing the leader. While that wouldn’t be a silver bullet, he said it would put the Liberals “back in the game.”
If the party was to go that route, the poll shows people ranking Mr. Carney as a more appealing leadership candidate than either Mr. Trudeau or Ms. Freeland; however, the none of the above option was the most popular.
According to the poll, 29 per cent of respondents said none of the above, 18 per cent said Mr. Carney, 12 per cent said Ms. Freeland, 9 per cent said Mr. Trudeau, 6 per said Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly, and 4 per cent said Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne.
The hybrid telephone and online survey was conducted between July 29 and Aug. 1. It had 1,035 respondents and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Editor’s note: (Aug. 12, 2024): A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that 34 per cent of respondents to a Nanos Research poll said they had a positive or somewhat positive opinion of the Prime Minister. The correct figure is 24 per cent. This version has been updated.