U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during the annual Friends Of Ireland Speaker Luncheon at the U.S. Capitol on March 15, 2023, in Washington, DC.Tom Brenner/Getty Images
A strong majority of Canadians want to see U.S. President Joe Biden re-elected in November, but many expect a Donald Trump return is more likely, according to a Nanos Research survey.
The poll conducted for The Globe and Mail shows 69 per cent of Canadians say they are hoping for Mr. Biden to win the next U.S. election.
Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump secured their respective party nominations on Tuesday. Thirty-eight per cent of Canadians believe Mr. Trump will win while only 27 per cent expect Mr. Biden’s re-election. Thirty-five per cent said they were unsure.
Polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics show Mr. Trump with a slight edge nationally. They also show Mr. Trump leading in the seven key battleground states of Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research, said no matter who is elected, Canadians should not expect a return to the “golden age” of Canada-U.S. relations.
“On the surface, Canadians believe a Biden presidency would be better, but the reality is Joe Biden has been primarily focused on a domestic agenda,” Mr. Nanos said.
“Anyone entering the U.S. will find that Americans are very focused on protecting their border, even with a very close ally like Canada.”
Mr. Nanos highlighted Mr. Biden’s infrastructure strategy as an example of the President’s domestic focus, which has promoted the use of U.S.-made materials.
He said many countries are looking to make up for the jobs that have been brought back into the United States.
“The world has to compete with the Biden administration,” Mr. Nanos said.
Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, said in January that many jobs depend on the trade relationship with America.
The U.S. is Canada’s most important trade partner. In 2023, 77 per cent of Canadian exports went to the United States, Statistics Canada data show.
“Manufacturing unions will be very focused on trying to make sure we continue to have good relationships,” Ms. Bruske said. “All of us will be working on that.”
The North American free-trade agreement was scrapped during Mr. Trump’s presidency, replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
The next U.S. president will be involved in the joint review of this agreement in 2026. For a decade after this review, member countries can confirm their desire for the agreement’s renewal. If even one member country does not confirm, the agreement will be scrapped.
Mr. Nanos said Mr. Trump would be more unconventional and combative than Mr. Biden during the joint review of USMCA. “Trump can be a disrupter. He likes to keep other countries off base in order to have the advantage,” he said.
Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba have the largest number of Trump supporters with 25 per cent of residents wanting to see Mr. Trump in office. But 57 per cent of Canadians in the prairies would rather Mr. Biden become president.
Canadian support for Mr. Biden is most concentrated in Eastern Canada. Among those hoping for a Biden win are 75 per cent of Canadians in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and other Atlantic provinces and 78 per cent of Quebec residents.
The Nanos poll is based on phone surveys of more than 1,000 randomly selected Canadians between Feb. 28 and March 2. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Mr. Nanos said Canadian opinion is not likely to have any material impact on the outcome of the U.S. election but it is a “key signal” on what lies ahead for Canada’s relationship with its southern neighbour.