A cyclist rides past a campaign sign in Lasalle, Que., on Sept. 9. A federal byelection will be held in the riding of Lasalle-Emard-Verdun on Sept. 16.Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are trying to make sure they hold onto their core party base as they face what senior Liberals say is a must-win by-election in Montreal next week.
The Sept. 16 vote in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun marks a make-or-break moment for the party, two senior Liberals said. One said it was difficult to chart the road to the next election before knowing the result in the once-Liberal stronghold. The other said losing it would make everything more difficult and force another reset with party morale.
Both said they do not believe a loss would lead to a change in leadership.
The Globe and Mail spoke with eight Liberal ministers, MPs and senior staff to understand how the party sees the stakes. The Globe is not identifying the Liberals because they were not authorized to discuss internal party deliberations.
Just under three months after losing another once-reliable Liberal seat in Toronto-St. Paul’s, one of the senior Liberals said they worry what a Montreal loss would say about their prospects across the country. If the Liberals can’t hold onto seats they used to win with 20-point margins, they said their prospects of winning in the many swing ridings look bleak.
All of the Liberals said it will be a tight race with an uncertain outcome, but three of them expressed cautious optimism that the party is doing what it needs to to win. They said the campaign believes they got out their vote in the advance polls, marking some progress from the Toronto-St. Paul’s race where Liberals believe they lost because of a strong Conservative turnout in the advance polls.
“We don’t take anything for granted,” said Liberal Party campaign co-chair and Quebec minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada in an interview with The Globe on Monday. “We’re doing everything that we have to do as a campaign and as an organization.”
Where that ends up leaving them in the result is unclear, she said. “We’ll see on the 16th,” she said.
One Liberal cautioned that the dynamics of a three-way race make it much more difficult to predict what will happen, because they don’t know how the anti-Liberal vote will split between the NDP and the Bloc-Québécois.
The urban riding is densely populated and reflects a diverse population in the southwestern part of Montreal, made up of parts of the three boroughs of LaSalle, Ville Émard, and Verdun. Two-thirds of households are renters, and the median income of $63,200 in 2020 is well below the countrywide comparator, according to the latest census from Statistics Canada.
Provincially, a significant portion of the riding is represented by the left-leaning Québec Solidaire but federally it is hallowed ground for the Liberals. Much of the now-redistricted constituency was represented for two decades by former Liberal prime minister Paul Martin. The by-election was forced by the resignation of David Lametti, who resigned less than a year after Mr. Trudeau removed him from cabinet.
Given the governing party’s history in the riding, the by-election should be a non-event, but the fact that it’s not shows how bad things have become for the Liberals, said Philippe Fournier, editor-in-chief of the poll aggregator 338Canada.com.
“If the Liberals start losing Montreal seats that they won by 20 points in the last election, the analogy of a huge house of cards falling to pieces is easy to make,” Mr. Fournier said.
The minority government lost the Toronto by-election in June by less than 2 points; in 2021 they won with a nearly 24-point margin.
Mr. Fournier’s website pegs the Montreal race as a toss-up between the Liberals and Bloc, but the NDP also believes that it is in contention, with a well-known city councillor as its candidate.
If the NDP secures an upset, it will reverse course on a downward trend that the party has endured since the highs of their 2011 Orange Wave. In each election since, its share of the vote has been worse than the previous, Mr. Fournier said.
The party moved its caucus retreat to Montreal from Ottawa to make the most of the momentum they are trying to build for candidate Craig Sauvé. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh canvassed with him on Tuesday evening. Mr. Sauvé described the by-election as a chance for voters to send the Prime Minister a message and said his party is getting a positive response at the doors.
“I think there’s going to be a beautiful surprise,” he said. “There’s going to be a second NDP seat in Montreal.”
With just days to go in the race, voters in the riding expressed indecision about their options to The Globe. While there was widespread disaffection with the Liberals, many were unsure where to park their vote. Even those who thought it was time for a change were skeptical the Liberals would lose their stronghold. And some voters were still squarely behind the Liberals.
Both the NDP and Bloc emphasized housing in their pitch to voters. The NDP’s Craig Sauvé, who shares the same last name as the Bloc candidate, said he was “shocked by the inaction” from Ottawa.
“We’re living it in this city, there are lands that are waiting for social housing development and the financing is not there,”
Louis-Philippe Sauvé, the Bloc candidate, is a long-time party activist who works for the Institut de recherche en économie contemporaine, a left-leaning economic research organization.
Housing is the focus, he said, because it’s what voters are worried about. “As a tenant myself, I understand the anxiety it can trigger,” he said, and called on the government to invest more in social and affordable housing.
Liberal candidate Laura Palestini, a city councillor, and Conservative candidate Louis Ialenti, a lawyer and business owner, did not respond to repeated interview requests.
Voters in the riding showed the splits the parties are contending with.
One long-time Liberal supporter, Roland Boucher, 81, said he would be switching to the Bloc. “I know that the Bloc will not hold power, but it can become strong,” he said.
“I’d maybe consider the Bloc,” said Evelyne Boivin, 42. The Liberals don’t inspire me that much, I think that the party is declining,”
Others were cold on the sovereigntist message but unsure whether to park their vote, but leaning New Democrat. “I’m completely disillusioned,” said René Jones, 62.
Still others were steadfast in their support of the Liberals. “I see that Mr. Trudeau cares a lot for the poor,” said Béatrice Mukarumongi, 68.
The Conservatives are not believed to be in contention in the race but also had some support on the doorsteps.
“Weirdly, there’s something on the Conservative side that appeals to me more and more,” said Javier Soto Pruzzo, 27, who said he has never voted before.
With a report from Bill Curry in Montreal