When Justin Trudeau turned tail and retreated from his carbon-tax policy, he also offered a way to save some of the emissions-reducing virtues: He told Atlantic Canadians he’d be handing out free heat pumps.
And hey, Mr. Trudeau made a fairly convincing argument that giving people a new home heating and cooling system that uses electricity, and a lot less energy overall, would be an effective way to reduce carbon emissions.
It might even make you think, “Hey, where’s my free heat pump?”
At least you might think that if you are not among the roughly 7½ per cent of Canadians who live in a region where Liberal MPs have been taking the worst political beating over carbon taxes on heating oil, which is widely used in Atlantic Canada.
But if “free” heat pumps help families reduce their carbon footprints and their energy costs, then a “free” heat pump – a $20,000 appliance – is as good for a family in North Bay, Ont., as it is for one in Glace Bay, N.S.
Trudeau softens federal carbon tax policy after backlash from Atlantic Canada
Of course, extending big incentives to regions that are home to the other 93 per cent of the population would presumably cost more than 10 times as much. Presumably, because the Liberal government doesn’t yet know, or at least isn’t saying, how much any of it will cost.
The Liberals do say they will work with other provinces to roll out better heat-pump rebates. But there’s no doubt that the first priority in this sudden retreat was saving the bacon of the 24 Liberal MPs from Atlantic Canada.
Many of those MPs have been squealing for months, in private and in public, that they were getting clobbered over the cost of heating oil. Atlantic premiers asked for a carbon-tax exemption for heating oil, which hadn’t been covered under previous provincial carbon schemes. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has toured Atlantic Canada, aggressively pinning the blame on federal carbon taxes.
But as Atlantic Canada Liberal MPs boiled in a political cauldron for five months, Mr. Trudeau and his political strategists held firm right up to the moment when they caved.
On Thursday, Mr. Trudeau held a press conference to say he’d pause carbon taxes on heating oil for three years.
That part is an across-the-board retreat in all provinces and territories where the federal carbon tax applies – B.C. and Quebec have their own regimes – until a year after the scheduled 2025 election.
As policy, it’s an awkward knot. Carbon taxes will be levied on natural gas but not on dirtier heating oil. And since this climbdown was going to look like a climbdown, Mr. Trudeau needed a way to say it wasn’t one. That’s where the heat pumps came in.
Now, Mr. Trudeau was arguing that a price on carbon is useful to encourage people to switch to lower-emitting fuel – from heating oil to electrical furnaces – but not for many people.
“I spoke to many Atlantic Canadians who’d love to have a heat pump but simply couldn’t outlay the $20,000 required. Even with an existing $10,000 program, it wasn’t enough to get them to change their behaviour,” Mr. Trudeau said Thursday. He said the Liberal government will work with Atlantic Canada provinces to deliver “free heat pumps to families making at or below the median income.”
That really means an increase in maximum income-related rebates for heat pumps, from $10,000 to $15,000, plus another $5,000 through federal-provincial grants. But if that reduces the cost to zero for half the families in Atlantic Canada, you’d expect many to take the money.
But the rushed “pilot project” is being rolled out where it is most politically sensitive for Liberals. Oh how they must hope they can phase it in in Quebec, then Southern Ontario, or B.C’s Lower Mainland, to gradually cover areas coloured red on the electoral map in time for 2025.
In the meantime, Mr. Trudeau’s desperate political about-face has him rewiring the rhetoric of his signature policy. And he had to hand out prizes.
Once, he assured people they’d probably get more from carbon levies than they paid. He concedes many people need other help to avoid getting dinged more and more.
Already, the Liberals are beating back calls for more exemptions, for natural gas. Next, opponents will ask about the affordability of electric cars.
Mr. Trudeau sacrificed a lot to beat a political retreat.