Conservative MP Erin O'Toole, seen here on Jan. 24, 2020, is a social moderate, but he’s avoided saying anything to irritate the so-cons.Justin Tang/The Canadian Press
With a federal election expected next spring, the Conservatives have set Aug. 21 as the deadline to receive mailed-in ballots that will decide the next leader. For the first time in the race, Durham MP Erin O’Toole has as good a chance of winning as former MP Peter MacKay.
On the question of election timing: While there has been some speculation about an early call, the spring of 2021 is the most likely time for the 44th general election, though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might delay until the fall of 2021, so that Liberal MPs elected in 2015 will be eligible for pensions.
A year-and-a-half to two years is a reasonable life span for a minority Parliament. And the Liberals will want to go to the people while they are still spending money to fight the pandemic, and before they have to start cutting.
So the next Conservative leader will have as little as eight or nine months to prepare. It will be an uphill battle. The Liberals are popular as the country unites to fight the coronavirus. Several prominent Conservatives chose not to seek the leadership. And the lockdown has badly disrupted the race.
About 200,000 party members will be eligible to vote for a new leader. About 50 to 60 per cent of those members are expected to cast ballots. Party insiders aren’t expecting any huge surge in new memberships before the May 15 cutoff.
Had the vote been held a couple of months ago, Mr. MacKay would probably have won in the first round. The former Progressive Conservative leader and then senior cabinet minister in the Harper governments had the money, endorsements and name recognition to win in a walk.
Today, not so much.
Mr. MacKay has repeatedly had to walk back controversial comments. The fundraising gap between the two front-runners has narrowed. There is a growing feeling among people I talked to within the party that the race is now much tighter, with Mr. MacKay either tied with Mr. O’Toole or still slightly in the lead. If so, that is grim news for Mr. MacKay.
For about 15 per cent of the membership – close to what social-conservative candidate Brad Trost received in the 2017 leadership vote – the only issue that really matters is limiting the right to an abortion, especially a late-term or sex-selective abortion.
Gun rights are also on the agenda, and limiting LGBTQ rights, but the right-to-life issue matters above all else for these social conservatives, many of them evangelical Christians.
Two candidates have tailored their campaigns to this group: Hastings-Lennox and Addington MP Derek Sloan and Toronto lawyer Leslyn Lewis. They cannot win, but their supporters could decide the winner. Consider one scenario, based on the ranked ballots submitted by party members.
In the first round, Mr. MacKay leads, but is short of 50 per cent, with Mr. O’Toole a strong second. Ms. Lewis, who is a far more attractive candidate than Mr. Sloan – especially after he questioned the loyalty of Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam – comes third. Mr. Sloan has the fewest number of first-choice votes and is out of the race.
In the second round, it’s safe to assume that most of Mr. Sloan’s supporters will have picked Ms. Lewis as their second choice. But she’s still likely to place third, leaving the final ballot between Mr. MacKay and Mr. O’Toole.
Hardly any of Ms. Lewis’s vote is likely to go to Mr. MacKay. He said that Andrew Scheer’s reluctance to disavow social conservatism in the past election was a “stinking albatross” around the leader’s neck. There is a tape of Mr. MacKay telling Conservative supporters that the party should “park” social conservatism until after winning power.
Mr. O’Toole is also a social moderate. But he’s avoided saying anything to irritate the so-cons. Most of the Lewis vote is likely to go to him. It may allow him to squeeze past Mr. MacKay in the final round, just as Mr. Scheer squeezed past frontrunner Maxime Bernier in 2017.
This isn’t the only possible scenario. Mr. MacKay may have enough of a lead over Mr. O’Toole in the first ballot to be unstoppable. The points system that weights ridings equally could favour him. But the MP from Durham has gone from underdog to serious contender. He could win.
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