Federal Conservatives are polling consistently ahead of their rivals and large crowds are turning up for rallies featuring leader Pierre Poilievre, but some party stalwarts and political observers say such positive developments aren’t nearly enough to guarantee electoral success.
The Conservatives need to take steps this year to maintain their momentum, they say, such as moderating the party’s message to win over non-Conservative voters, rolling out policy proposals – and taking nothing for granted.
The next federal election isn’t scheduled until late 2025, but could take place before then if the minority Liberal government falls.
Fred DeLorey, the Conservative’s national campaign director for the 2021 election, says the party’s surge has come from high interest rates, and the governing Liberals struggle to communicate effectively on this issue.
As a result, he said the party has to realize that there could be a shift in public support if the situation starts to normalize.
“Therefore, the party must develop strategies that resonate with voters beyond the current economic discontent, ensuring continued engagement on a broad range of issues,” Mr. DeLorey said in a statement. “If we keep our eggs in one basket, we risk becoming a one-trick pony in an ever-evolving race.”
Tim Powers, a long-time Conservative who is chairperson of Summa Strategies, says Mr. Poilievre needs to consider rolling out some key policy proposals.
“I don’t think he can go through all of 2024 constantly criticizing the government without showing his hand on some key policy areas,” Mr. Powers said in an interview.
However, former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper cautioned Mr. Poilievre last year against putting out too many policy ideas ahead of an election, saying he should instead wait for the eventual campaign.
Tausha Michaud, chief of staff to former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole, says she expects the federal Tories are likely using internal polls and focus groups to test policy proposals.
“Next, I’d imagine the CPC will start rolling out some strategic platform announcements and test-driving messaging they’ll use once they’re in campaign mode,” said Ms. Michaud, now a senior vice-president with the McMillan Vantage public-affairs firm.
Ian Brodie, a former chief of staff for Mr. Harper, says the economic situation facing Canada isn’t improving so the party’s focus on those issues is correct.
However, Mr. Brodie said in an e-mail that “being nimble” around issues related to the United States will be a new challenge.
He said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is going to continue to “seed the idea” that Mr. Poilievre is akin to former U.S. president Donald Trump, now seeking the Republican presidential nomination again in a bid to return to the White House.
Mr. Brodie said Conservatives will have to be careful not to get dragged into that argument.
Mr. Trudeau, during an appearance before the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal last week, said November’s U.S. presidential election will be a choice between progress and democracy, and anger and conspiracy.
Although he did not name Mr. Poilievre, the Prime Minister said Canadians have similar choices to those facing American voters.
A spokesperson for Mr. Poilievre declined to comment on the assertion. And Mr. Poilievre’s office did not respond to questions about the party’s plans for the year ahead.
Mr. Brodie also said Conservatives will have to work to keep public inquiry hearings into foreign interference by China and other states, set to begin Jan. 29, focused on Beijing’s efforts to hurt Conservatives like MP Michael Chong, and not let it get sidetracked by other issues.
Pollster David Coletto says the Conservatives have been very good at pushing the narrative that Canadians want political change, and need to keep doing that.
In rallies, on social media and in his role in the House of Commons as Official Opposition Leader, Mr. Poilievre has hammered issues of affordability, with a focus on criticizing federal carbon pricing.
However, the founder, chair and CEO of Abacus Data said the party also has to demonstrate it is ready for government, and reassure non-Conservative voters or new voters.
“When they have gotten into trouble, it’s because they signal to people that they aren’t serious or they get too focused on pet projects or pet issues,” Mr. Coletto said in an interview.
“There is risk for them to assume that just because people want change that they are automatically going to vote Conservative. It’s likely to happen, but it has been proven in other elections and other jurisdictions that the more-unpopular party can still win an election.”
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist of Nanos Research, said the party needed to reassure voters.
“The top of the Conservative’s to-do list for 2024 should be to build and advance a narrative that the Conservatives are a low-risk government in waiting.”